ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
Makes And Models => Zero Motorcycles Forum | 2013+ => Topic started by: MostlyBonkers on April 20, 2020, 02:24:11 PM
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I've also posted this on the Facebook group. I'm posting here too as I know some of you don't use FB. I can't say I blame you either! :-)
I can understand why the 2012-15 models were expensive; battery costs and the development costs of the early bikes. However, during the last five years the cost of batteries has plummeted. So why aren't we seeing this reflected in the cost of the bikes? I don't see any reason why a new Zero S or DS should cost more than a Honda NC750 S or X. Other than Honda having greater economies of scale, of course. Regardless, Zero must have seen their costs reduce over the last five years.
My own theory is that Zero don't have the ability to scale up production at the moment. If they drop the price, demand would shoot up to levels that they can't supply. At the current price point they can make enough profit by manufacturing a coupe of thousand bikes a year without having to invest in a larger factory. The sad thing is that I think there is a lot of latent demand out there just waiting for prices to drop. I'm certain a lot of bikers would consider a Zero as a second bike and keep a tourer for longer trips. Not to mention all the commuters who would benefit greatly from having a Zero ease the burden of their daily grind.
Any thoughts?
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I would be absolutely all over a SR/F at £15k for a premium model. But that's the absolute most I'd pay for what amounts to a toy.
Three things are out by a factor of 2 before the general market take any notice of electric bikes:
1. Price
2. Range
3. Charging time
Cas :)
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It seems to me that they need those prices to subsidize the bikes that don't sell. I've seen new never-titled Zeros that took 2 or 3 years to sell, so they have to be able to heavily discount them and still make the dealer network something for the time they sat. When sales slow down we may see them lower the prices and scale up. As it sits now the SR/F and SR/S are very new frameworks and all the publicity and everything probably has sales peaked for their current capacity. With how much they have taken in investments to get to this point they need them to be selling for those crazy $16k MSRP's. I'm talking out of my ass a bit but this is how I see it--I think it's just a matter of time.
Of course the current virus situation has made everything very unpredictable so I doubt that they will make any major business changes for a while.
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I hear a lot that the cost of batteries has plummeted. But is that true? If I look at the attached graph the AVERAGE cost of batteries went from around 600$/kwh in 2014 to around 400$/kwh in 2020. That is not exactly plummeting in my humble opinion. I must admit that I was also surprised to see that the drop in prices is much less than I expected.
Plus the battery also increased in kwh from 2014 to 2020 (well actually up to 2018 because 2018-2020 has seen the same battery size)
2014 : 11.4 kwh * 600 $ = 6.840 for the batteries alone
2015 : 12.0 kwh
2016 : 12.5 kwh
2017 : 13.0 kwh
2018 : 14.4 kwh
2019 : 14.4 kwh
2020 : 14.4 kwh * 4000 $ = 5.760 for the batteries
so the battery price for Zero has "only" gone down 1000 dollars in those years. So there is not much to be saved there.
And there is another thing,
Because the space on a motorcycle is so limited, Zero opted to use Pouch cells, which are very energy dense and space efficient in a battery pack compared to round batteries where you lose a lot of space between the batteries. But these pouch cells are more expensive because they are produced less. And Zero has chosen to use the pouch cells with the highest density each year (i.e. the top model of the battery supplier, hence high prices). Pouch cells are also not the main stream package of batteries so there is no real mass production of pouch cells compared to the for example the round laptop or Tesla cells. So pouch cells are relatively expensive.
Using round cells like tesla in a motorcycle would greatly increase the size and weight of the battery so that is a nogo terrain for Zero (again, in my humble opinion :) )
Also I think that if they ware able to make a motorcycle like the SR/F for 10 or 15 thousand, they would absolutely do it.
And to disappoint a lot of people wanting it :
The unicorn of an electric motorcycle with a highway range of 300 km (i.e. 40 kWh battery!), charge time of 15 minutes (i.e. 160 kW!), weighs less than 200 kg, has a 0-60 of < 3 seconds AND costs 10.000-15.000 US$/GBP/Euro's does not exist (duh) and WILL not exist for many years! 8)
BUT that said, try a Zero, buy a Zero and enjoy the ride !
I know I did yesterday for 280 km riding 2 up through beautiful sceneries (we are fortunately still allowed to go outside, as long as we keep distance to other people), charged at only 1 stop for 50 minutes, which cost 3 euros and had an absolute blast the whole day.
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Several factors - some of which I saw posted by others on Facebook.
1) They're built in California. It's expensive to live there, and pay people there.
2) I don't think the demand is as high as you think. While I personally had an issue buying a 2019 FXS mid-summer last year (because they were sold out), I only had to wait a few more months for the 2020. Are there lines of people waiting to buy a Zero that goes for 6-9 months? The opposite may be true. My local dealer has a 2018 FX he can't get rid of.
3) Battery prices haven't really dropped as much as you think, and they build in higher capacity batteries instead of lowering the price.
4) Assuming the staff can only build X number of bikes per year, and their costs (materials, rent, labor) stay constant, they really can't lower their prices much even if the components go down, because....
5) Zero isn't profitable last time I read somebody who spilled the beans. I wish I remember where I saw the insider post, but I don't.
These are layman guesses btw.
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My feeling has always been that Zero just doesn't have large enough sales numbers to produce their motorcycles efficiently and to purchase parts at a volume savings like the big manufacturers do. They could buy cheap crap parts from China, but would you really want them to do that? And the battery comments by remmie certainly is a big factor that keeps their prices high.
I have seen Zero's factory and it is nothing like BMW's, as an example. It is more like hand assembly on movable stands in a big garage. Labor intensive and no robots. Plus, labor costs in the SF Bay Area is not cheap. Add to that most of their staff are (presumably well-paid) engineers trying to advance the technology, they have no other product to financially help to support the company, and their sales remain very small due to the limited market. Frankly, I am amazed (and thankful) that they are still in business and that their private investors continue to support and fund the company's operations and have not tried to sell the operation to a major brand and cash out, like what happened to Brammo. Just look at the list of electrical motorcycle maker sub-forums below and consider how many of them are still in business. :(
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Bonkers where ya been? :)
I agree the costs haven't dropped like we had hoped but I think the old predictions of cheaper batteries didn't take increased demand into the equation.
Now it seems battery "cells" have dropped in price quite a bit but the labor cost to build them up into usable batteries has gone up. I feel that's been Zero's number one issue for a while, high labor costs for every position. (Richard I wrote this before I saw your post but glad to see we agree) Remember even at the current prices I don't think Zero has ever made a profit.
I think it was very unfortunate that the SRF and SRS weren't able to come out with 20kWh batteries and be a smashing success, though they are very nice bikes in their own right. Perhaps soon, but who knows.
I still love my Zeros and hope to keep them going for years to come but without a (very) large increase in range from some bike company I doubt I'd get another.
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My thoughts:
We can second guess the pricing as much as we want, but Zero is operating in a free market economy. I don't have any reason to believe that Zero is price gouging. If they were/are, and there is latent demand, then other manufacturers will bring products in at competitive prices and put pressure on Zero to lower prices.
I think that a comparison with Honda's NC750 is somewhat apples to oranges. Sure, I wish that I could get a Zero for $8k. Why stop there, though? I wish I could get a Zero for $1000 that weights 100 lbs, goes 0-60 in 2 seconds, goes 500 miles on a charge and recharges in 45 seconds.
Not just for Zero, but in general, I used to get hung up on the sum of the component costs versus the selling price. There's a lot more to the costs than that, and it's a business decision how they set their prices. Of course, they would sell more if they reduced prices, but the same could be said about pretty much anything that's for sale. I would agree that it seems prices on batteries have gone down some, but I can't profess to know any more than that about the balance sheet for the company. Not being publicly traded, Zero doesn't disclose much of anything to do with their finances.
I usually keep my bikes for a long time, and I intend to do so with my Zero. If I were in the market today, I'd buy a Zero at the current offering price.
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Occasionally see this emphasis on crazy 0...60 times... not everyone really cares about that. I don't really care about it at all. I'd be happy with 5 seconds and 100mph top speed, like most commuter bikes. There's no need to go chasing ludicrous tyre-shredding power and instant jail terms - bikes are already bonkers fast. Development of bikes faster than the SR/F would be, at this point, a waste of money for Zero. They instead need to figure out how to double that capacity and halve that charging time. And when they've done that... do it again.
Cas :)
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Occasionally see this emphasis on crazy 0...60 times... not everyone really cares about that. I don't really care about it at all. I'd be happy with 5 seconds and 100mph top speed, like most commuter bikes. There's no need to go chasing ludicrous tyre-shredding power and instant jail terms - bikes are already bonkers fast. Development of bikes faster than the SR/F would be, at this point, a waste of money for Zero. They instead need to figure out how to double that capacity and halve that charging time. And when they've done that... do it again.
Cas :)
Agreed. As long as it's under 5.8 seconds and can beat your average V6 automobile, the rest is gravy.
https://www.zeroto60times.com/vehicle-make/zero-0-60-mph-times/ (https://www.zeroto60times.com/vehicle-make/zero-0-60-mph-times/)
Although this is off topic, I think range is and always will be an EV's biggest issue, not price. They can add more batteries, but a 600 pound bike is unwieldy. The laws of physics come into play.
They obviously made a design decision to use a direct drive and air-cooled motor in order to reduce complexity and weight, but perhaps it's time for them to look at other options? I'm sure their engineers are looking into that; R&D takes time and money. I always wondered if a simple 'Low and High' 2-speed transmission would help, like in those old motorcycle arcade games? But would the cost, weight and complexity negate the benefits? Smarter minds than mine probably ponder that in Scotts Valley. As of right now, I see they are looking to hire some powertrain experts.
https://www.zeromotorcycles.com/company/employment (https://www.zeromotorcycles.com/company/employment)
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The battery prices that have plummeted are for cells and packs that are manufactured and assembled in extremely large quantities.
These are not cells or packs that work for electric motorcycles, and the electric motorcycle battery manufacturing pipeline is still attached to the industrial light truck and forklift market, where high density is a premium.
Therefore, the scale effects of the batteries described in the news cycle for Tesla and other large manufacturers have not translated into price reductions for us.
Note that there are other car manufacturers (Mercedes-Benz IIRC) which had to stop production because they couldn't even get access to batteries in the volume they required.
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This is why I sit on my pile of $TSLA stock :D
Cas :)
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I agree with all the reasons above. US labor costs are at a premium. Just ask Harley and Indian. You don't see their bikes selling for the same prices as Hondas, Yamahas, etc. I think another reason Zero bikes cost what they do, is for the quality of their products, this is the going price. Look at the price of the Energicas and the Livewire. You can't compare Zero's bikes to some of the cheap Chinese electric motorcycles. TZero sells for what people is willing to pay for it. Yes maybe they would get more customers if they drop the prices but that would mean a huge investment in a large automated manufacturing process. Now it will be interesting what happens when the big 4 Japanese manufacturers come out with their electric lineup. If they keep Zero's quality while drop the price due to large scale automated manufacturing, then it will be tough for Zero (and Energica) to continue as they are now. Will they change or become an expensive niche bike like Ducuatis, BMWs and Aprillas. I guess in the next few years, we will see.
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Nobody has large, automated motorcycle manufacturing, though.
-Crissa
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I hear a lot that the cost of batteries has plummeted. But is that true? If I look at the attached graph the AVERAGE cost of batteries went from around 600$/kwh in 2014 to around 400$/kwh in 2020. That is not exactly plummeting in my humble opinion. I must admit that I was also surprised to see that the drop in prices is much less than I expected.
Plus the battery also increased in kwh from 2014 to 2020 (well actually up to 2018 because 2018-2020 has seen the same battery size)
2014 : 11.4 kwh * 600 $ = 6.840 for the batteries alone
2015 : 12.0 kwh
2016 : 12.5 kwh
2017 : 13.0 kwh
2018 : 14.4 kwh
2019 : 14.4 kwh
2020 : 14.4 kwh * 4000 $ = 5.760 for the batteries
so the battery price for Zero has "only" gone down 1000 dollars in those years. So there is not much to be saved there.
And there is another thing,
Because the space on a motorcycle is so limited, Zero opted to use Pouch cells, which are very energy dense and space efficient in a battery pack compared to round batteries where you lose a lot of space between the batteries. But these pouch cells are more expensive because they are produced less. And Zero has chosen to use the pouch cells with the highest density each year (i.e. the top model of the battery supplier, hence high prices). Pouch cells are also not the main stream package of batteries so there is no real mass production of pouch cells compared to the for example the round laptop or Tesla cells. So pouch cells are relatively expensive.
Using round cells like tesla in a motorcycle would greatly increase the size and weight of the battery so that is a nogo terrain for Zero (again, in my humble opinion :) )
Also I think that if they ware able to make a motorcycle like the SR/F for 10 or 15 thousand, they would absolutely do it.
And to disappoint a lot of people wanting it :
The unicorn of an electric motorcycle with a highway range of 300 km (i.e. 40 kWh battery!), charge time of 15 minutes (i.e. 160 kW!), weighs less than 200 kg, has a 0-60 of < 3 seconds AND costs 10.000-15.000 US$/GBP/Euro's does not exist (duh) and WILL not exist for many years! 8)
BUT that said, try a Zero, buy a Zero and enjoy the ride !
I know I did yesterday for 280 km riding 2 up through beautiful sceneries (we are fortunately still allowed to go outside, as long as we keep distance to other people), charged at only 1 stop for 50 minutes, which cost 3 euros and had an absolute blast the whole day.
There are other things:
+ Moore's law. "Number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years, though the cost of computers is halved." That should give Zero some reduction on prices of other components.
+ Design costs. Most of the bikes in the Zero product line have been on the market for years so large part of the design costs should be recouped.
+ Tooling. Same there, most of the tooling costs should be recouped.
- Lot of manual labour.
US manufacturers usually price their products at the highest amount that the market is willing to pay. Cost of manufacture does rarely factor much in the price tag.
I was expecting the Kymco RevoNEX to arrive in the fall. Covid will probably delay that somewhat but if/when it arrives we might see price drop from Zero.
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I don't think R&D costs will go down because that staff (however many people they are) are always working on the next thing. It's not like they lay them off, or have them sit on their hands. Moore's Law doesn't really apply to motorcycles. Whatever small amount of computer chips they buy stay the same price, but perhaps become more powerful on the newer models. A monochrome LCD screen on a 2015 FX is probably the same price as on a 2020, if not more. Tooling..perhaps that is true. Unless they're adding the tooling costs of the "next-big-thing" to the costs of the current motorcycles, which they have to do anyway to stay in business.
I think what more likely happened is they went in the hole a bit to design the first iteration of motorcycles, and only now might be making a little more money, so there is no incentive to drop prices.
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Not only that they also don't make the controller themselves (one of the most expensive electrical components for which Moore's Law could apply), so while Sevcon may be making a bit more profit than they used to Zero could be paying the same. Pretty sure the dash is made by a third party too as I've seen a very similar one (just lacking the Zero logo I think) on some other electric bike.
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And unless you can move to the new tooling... The old parts generally don't really go down in price if there's still demand. They're just outmoded by the new parts.
So sure, LCDs have gone down in price - so much so the SR/F has a color screen - but that just gives them new abilities, not really a lower price point. Their old LCD screen would be cheaper to make now... But it's a special product, so it's mostly stuck at its original price.
The more general a part can be, like a relay or a screen or a processor - the more the price can go down. The less general a part is - like a relay for compatibility or custom LCD - the more 'stuck' at a price point it is.
-Crissa
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Zero might wisely move their manufacturing to Thailand, like Triumph have done, in order to keep a firm lid on costs.
Cas :)
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Zero might wisely move their manufacturing to Thailand, like Triumph have done, in order to keep a firm lid on costs.
Cas :)
I don't think that would make sense for Zero as their yearly production is too low to make the cost of setting up a new manufacturing plant in Asia economical. They would likely have to increase sales by as much as 10 times to make that pencil out. ???
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That would be the idea :) Bit of a chicken and egg... can't do volumes while charging niche enthusiast prices, can't do sensible prices unless doing volume...
Cas :)
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Manufacturing doesn't work like anyone here is expressing. Manufacturing is very difficult and costly, and quality plays into after-sales support and servicing so there's a balance they have to predict on quality investment that can't be measured until 2+ years later.
Each manufacturer has to reach volume in order to reduce their manufacturing overhead. There's no way around it, and no way that one manufacturer's scale and price reduction will somehow enable the lower volume manufacturer to reduce their price without reducing their margin or risking bankruptcy eventually.
Not a single electric motorcycle product / manufacturer is profitable right now.
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I don't think R&D costs will go down because that staff (however many people they are) are always working on the next thing. It's not like they lay them off, or have them sit on their hands.
Not only that they also don't make the controller themselves (one of the most expensive electrical components for which Moore's Law could apply), so while Sevcon may be making a bit more profit than they used to Zero could be paying the same. Pretty sure the dash is made by a third party too as I've seen a very similar one (just lacking the Zero logo I think) on some other electric bike.
And unless you can move to the new tooling... The old parts generally don't really go down in price if there's still demand.
I didn't say that R&D costs had gone down. The costs of R&D and tooling for the SR "should be recouped" by now. They need to purchase new toolings for other lines, but the customers who buy the SR line "should not" have to pay for the toolings for other lines.
It is exactly at third party suppliers where Zero can profit from Moore's law. Current BMS probably has half the components it did when the SR was introduced and that itself is savings, not counting the price drop of components.
Manufacturing doesn't work like anyone here is expressing. Manufacturing is very difficult and costly, and quality plays into after-sales support and servicing so there's a balance they have to predict on quality investment that can't be measured until 2+ years later.
Exactly. Cost of the manufacturing is much more than the sum of the parts in the bike. Which is why recouped costs of R&D and tooling should give the manufacturer opportunity to reduce prices.
The thing is that while the bikes are selling in good volumes, and there is no real competition, then there is no pressure to lower the prices.
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Zero's R&D costs have not been "recouped"; they've been mitigated by Zero conservatively keeping the platform stable.
Zero takes in occasional investment rounds with their private investment group in order to keep funding R&D. They are in fact incredibly lean for an EV startup. Every figure I've seen cited for competitors is way higher. The bikes are priced a little aggressively but probably right at the comfort zone for their scale to ensure they don't bleed money. I don't think Zero could cut prices to where everyone wants them to be without bleeding money and risking imminent demise.
The understanding is that Zero would have to sell between 5k and 10k bikes per year to start lowering costs and hitting the higher volume that would recoup the investments fully. They're still somewhere in the 2k bikes per year range; maybe 2.5k but the current conditions I'm sure have clamped sales for every manufacturer so who knows.
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I wish more people knew about these bikes.
They're so much easier to learn to ride on than anything else, with much easier maintenance...
-Crissa
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But they cost as much as a reasonable car :|
Cas :)
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Comparing to a car almost isn't fair. They have massive quantities of scale.
But comparing them to plug in battery cars, they're cheaper.
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A top end Chevy Bolt is $30,000.00 right now. Why they are so cheep scares me.
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The top end Bolt starts at $42K. Where are you finding it for $30K?
Admittedly, all car dealers (except Tesla) are hurting right now. No sales.
-Crissa
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Bonkers where ya been? :)
I agree the costs haven't dropped like we had hoped but I think the old predictions of cheaper batteries didn't take increased demand into the equation.
Now it seems battery "cells" have dropped in price quite a bit but the labor cost to build them up into usable batteries has gone up. I feel that's been Zero's number one issue for a while, high labor costs for every position. (Richard I wrote this before I saw your post but glad to see we agree) Remember even at the current prices I don't think Zero has ever made a profit.
I think it was very unfortunate that the SRF and SRS weren't able to come out with 20kWh batteries and be a smashing success, though they are very nice bikes in their own right. Perhaps soon, but who knows.
I still love my Zeros and hope to keep them going for years to come but without a (very) large increase in range from some bike company I doubt I'd get another.
I can't reply to all the great comments here right now, but as to where I've been:
Suffering from depression, quite frankly. I'm over it now, but unfortunately it took about 18 months this time round. I even stopped riding for about six months of it. Such a shame really because riding my Zero is one of the greatest pleasures I get from life. At least I'm back in the saddle now.
The Facebook post got a lot of comments, but I prefer the format of this forum. The quality of the posts here are often of a higher quality too. Not always, I hasten to add, it's just a general observation.
The question in my original post has certainly been answered thoroughly. As I've mentioned on Facebook, I feel much happier with Zero's pricing now. It is very easy to criticise when ignorant of some of the finer details! [emoji4]
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But after 63000 miles, my zero will have paid for itself. Of course, will my already five year old bike survive the ten years to make that number? I dunno.
No other vehicle I have ever considered owning actually had a number like that ^-^
But I'm glad the winding road of the conversation here answered your questions. It's always so easy to under value the work that goes into a product.
-Crissa
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But after 63000 miles, my zero will have paid for itself. Of course, will my already five year old bike survive the ten years to make that number? I dunno.
No other vehicle I have ever considered owning actually had a number like that ^-^
But I'm glad the winding road of the conversation here answered your questions. It's always so easy to under value the work that goes into a product.
-Crissa
My son-in-law is riding a 1986 Honda VFR700FII for commuting and on trips to visit his family in the Serra Nevada foothills. That bike has 120,000 miles on the clock and has never needed a mechanical repair (just electrical). My daughter's 1981 BMW R65LS has about 100,000 miles on it, although it has needed repairs to replace leaking oil seals.
As for Zeros reaching similar mileage, who knows? I guess we will have to wait and see. But I don't know why not as long as chassis maintenance can be performed as needed.
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I must admit I've never owned a bike that long. I think my record is 24,000 miles (owned from new), over 3 years. The highest mileage bike I ever owned was a Kwak GT550, which claimed 17k on the odo but it had clearly actually done 117k :D (ex despatch). It was a total hound.
Cas :)
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Bolts cheep, Columbus, Wi
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Bolts cheep, Columbus, Wi
https://www.napletonchevroletbuick.com/VehicleSearchResults?search=new&make=Chevrolet&model=Bolt+EV
I could not figure out if they do freight, prep, conveyance but for a cash sale 69 to 70% of msrp and that does not seem to include any tax benefits.
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Few years ago I was considering buying a Zero. The dealer was full of ignore the purchase price because of "Long term benefits", "Lower TCO", and "only 3 of Euros to fully charge" statements.
Well, I calculated it. I compared DSR ZF14.4 (with power tank) and V-Strom 650 (entry level model). With my regular riding of about 8000 km per year, the break even point is in roughly 20 years, 160000 km with modest maintenance. That is out the door dealer price (NL) without discount, doing my own maintenance, no crashes, no engine/battery rebuilds/replacements. Assuming same road taxes. This does not take into account having to pay for access to charge stations or interest on the higher purchase price. Until my current one (6 years) I had never had any motorcycle more than 3 years.
I'm sure Zero's, Energica, and others are great but I'm holding out for some cheaper ones.
Edit. Current prices. Zero 14.4 DSR +powertank €21.540, Suzuki V-Strom 650A € 9.499, Electricity 23 cent per kWh, Petrol 1.473 per liter.
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The break even point cannot possibly be 160k km (100k mi) or 20 years. We've calculated it before at 30-60k miles (50-100k km).
The usual way to calculate it (which obviously varies by use case) is to compare fuel costs (price per gallon * mpg * odometer) plus accruing maintenance costs per regular interval, compared to the cost of home electricity (price per kWh times average efficiency per mile times odometer) plus electric maintenance costs.
Honestly, the only real price that doesn't amortize is the insurance premiums, which is a fair critique.
I own both a V-Strom 650 2012 which gets 55-60mpg (no slouch) and a DSR, and the DSR lowers my overall maintenance costs substantially between the two bikes. My V-Strom has an extremely low service interval because I own the Zero, and the Zero I generally service myself when that's even needed.
I definitely think the Zero family is for heavy commuters or light travelers to get the value, and I do not recommend eliminating gas bikes entirely from your garage in favor of any electric motorcycle. Get the electric motorcycle to reduce your ongoing maintenance costs and have a better daily ride. Keep the gas motorcycle for trips and as a backup.
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As someone who is not a gearhead, my maintenance costs of an ICE bike would be more than for other people. I might do my own oil changes, but that's it. Everything I'd have done at a dealer. Now that being said, I might try my hand at replacing my own belt and brake pads when the time comes, but I may not. I would leave my tires to the dealer.
The break even point cannot possibly be 160k km (100k mi) or 20 years. We've calculated it before at 30-60k miles (50-100k km).
etc
To be fair, it only takes one $2000 high priced electronics thingamajig to break, out of warranty, and the Zero shoots up in overall 'maintenance costs' (or TCO). I did a poll earlier and that percentage wasn't small. If you're outside the USA, Zero may not even help you if a dealer isn't nearby.
All that being said, I still love my Zero FXS, but I know it's a gamble once the warranty is out.
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I ran the numbers before I bought my 2014 SR, so it must have been in late 2013. I compared it to putting more miles on my BMW 328i, since it was my other vehicle. I wound up with a break-even point somewhere in the 50k (miles) range, and I've got that on my bike now.
Things have changed, though. Gasoline is incredibly cheap right now due to low demand, and electricity is incredibly expensive here in San Diego. (I'm paying $0.52 /kWh, and that's with the EV rate!) So if I ran the numbers today, it might not be much cheaper at all to ride the bike, let alone pay back the purchase price in a reasonable amount of time.
There are other reasons to enjoy electric motorcycles, though. In addition to their riding charms, which are considerable, what it really comes down to for me is the fuel is renewable (at least potentially) and already part of the carbon cycle. I just bought a new barbecue grill, and I went with charcoal instead of propane or natural gas for the exact same reason -- we have GOT to break our addiction to petrochemicals. It won't happen until we make it happen.
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+1 on Brian's post
Plus it's folly to not put a price on your time to do the maintenance on a gas bike. Honestly you do it because you have to not because you love it. You likely wouldn't do it for free to a strangers bike so at least figure roughly what you make an hour if not the $100ish an hour for shop labor like here in the US.
Best advise is always buy used, pay cash, have a backup (car really), have money for repairs on hand, and be very realistic about how much you want to and will ride. My Zeros will be the most money savvy transportation I've ever owned. I got them cheap they save on gas and miles on my car and I truly love just plain riding them around 30-40 mile loops just for fun.
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The break even point cannot possibly be 160k km (100k mi) or 20 years. We've calculated it before at 30-60k miles (50-100k km).
etc
To be fair, it only takes one $2000 high priced electronics thingamajig to break, out of warranty, and the Zero shoots up in overall 'maintenance costs' (or TCO). I did a poll earlier and that percentage wasn't small. If you're outside the USA, Zero may not even help you if a dealer isn't nearby.
All that being said, I still love my Zero FXS, but I know it's a gamble once the warranty is out.
While it's absolutely true that the risk on electric motorcycles of the cost shooting up is relatively high (and this is why I hope the manual can help owners avoid or mitigate those issues), there are plenty of gas motorcycles which have similar issues. Sure, KTM is going to worse than a mid-range Big Four Japenese motorcyle, but economizing isn't a sure thing.
FWIW I absolutely treat warranty-covered repairs by electric motorcycle companies in the same bin as customer-paid repairs, because the cost either goes into the aggregated margin on the bike (indirectly to the owner) or on the owner directly. So, I really don't care whether Zero or Energica pay for repairs for the owner, from a certain perspective - I think the owners eventually have to pay. I do want them to cover quality/defect issues, particularly so they're properly motivated to budget and manage it, but the question of how much it costs to keep the vehicles running across the market plays into the motorcycles' actual value.
I also wish part swaps on electric motorcycles were less bulky. Swapping even an MBB or BMS is too expensive because it requires factory reprogramming per unit, so dealers can't keep them in inventory. Controllers and chargers are enormously expensive and wasteful to swap as a troubleshooting triage step, and yet all the manufacturers seem to have a process that involves this, rather than figuring out more nuanced diagnostics and fault isolation procedures.
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Geez, I only pay 29¢ a KWh to charge and we have all renewable net carbon zero or less energy here. How could you pay almost twice that in San Diego?
-Crissa
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Uncompromisingly Republican city government. SDG&E is totally out of control and nobody can does or can do anything about it.
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I thought the idea was that free market competition would drive prices for electricity down to an acceptable level?
Cas :)
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I thought the idea was that free market competition would drive prices for electricity down to an acceptable level?
Cas :)
That is beyond the scope of why the cost of a Zero Motorcycle. In short yes that is the idea but only on the supply side. On the transmission side there may still be legacy Nuclear plant costs, legacy mistakes in the Enron bankrupcy (making unsecured loans dressed up as electric contracts), perhaps others. Just what comes to mind. Electric infastructure gets property taxed. I note some new hydro projects on the Ohio River at locks make a 25 year contract but what in year 26. That is probably the supply side. Generally there is a base charge to be hooked to the grid in the transmission side and if you do not use much and do your arithmetic total bill divided by kwh used the per kwh cost will be high. Not only that the tele marketers for choose your supplier and the ones for solar instalation will hang up on you.