ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
Makes And Models => Zero Motorcycles Forum | 2013+ => Topic started by: Low On Cash on January 13, 2017, 07:23:26 AM
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Let me open with the comment that I am not an Elon Musk (Tesla) Fan, but I did want to express the fact that with his billions of dollars mostly financed from US electric car tax Credits (or us taxpayers) he has managed to build Lithium cells in a more cost effective manner than any other company in the world.
Tesla’s recent announcement shows the release of the Tesla Power Wall 2 - a “Stand By†home system powered by lithium cells to provide power to a home during cycles or used as an emergency outage system.
Just a few years ago, lithium was costing around a $1000 per kilowatt - Tesla announced the Power Wall 2 will be available in two offerings; a 7 kWh for $3000 and a 10 kWh system for only $3500. Therefore, simple math tells us that has brought the price of Lithium down on a retail level to only $350 per kW. I would imaging on a wholesale level the cost would be $200-250 per kW.
Hopefully, Zero and other companies will be able to secure these cells or possibly competing companies will follow. If they do, we could see a drastic reduction in electric motorcycle cost. If Zero could purchase cells for $250 kW, they would only have only $3250 in cell cost.
If Honda can build a motorcycle with an ICE engine and sell it for $10,000, if we remove the engine and transmission I’m sure this same bike could sell for $7,000. If this is the case, then surely Zero could over their 13kW bike for under $12,000, and keep the same profit margin they have now. If Zero does not move in this direction - its certain other motorcycle manufactures will.
Regards Mike
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TESLA's investment along with the investment of LG Chem, Panasonic and others will definitely drive the cost of lithium cells down. Simple supply and demand.
However, you wouldn't want a motorcycle that was built with the cells TESLA is building in their new factory. TESLA is building 21700 form factor cylindrical cells compared to the pouch cells from Farasis that Zero uses. When you just look at energy density of the cells they may be comparable. I haven't found specs on TESLA's new cells but the Farasis cells are pretty good. But when you build a pack the cylindrical cells result in a lot of unused space so the pack ends up being far less energy dense.
Zero's battery packs are the most energy dense pack available on the market today bar none. If they built a pack using TESLA's cells you would be taking a step backwards in range.
But still....more batteries on the market = falling prices....so it's a win ;D
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What's a good EV 4-wheeled vehicle that can tow a 2-wheeled EV vehicle? Are there any EV trucks out there? How would you do this with say a Nissan Leaf?
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Zero's battery packs are the most energy dense pack available on the market today bar none. If they built a pack using TESLA's cells you would be taking a step backwards in range.
Cylindrical cells could be good for the lower capacity Zeros though. For example, rather than offering a Z13 and Z6.5, maybe they could have the Z13 and a super low priced "C6.5" (by filling the Z13 volume with cylindrical packs). I guess it depends on whether the cell cost difference is enough to justify the extra R&D, reduced economies of scale with Farasis, etc.
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Thanks for the reply however the new 2170 cell has the highest energy density of any lithium cell made. Take a peek at the wall module 2 size, it has twice the energy of the older wall 1 module. Looks like they got it figured out and latest word the cost is only $340 kw.
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As far as towing something with an EV, the only thing presently sold that does this ( to my knowledge in the US anyway ) is the Model X Tesla.
Depending upon how far and fast you wish to tow, there are various other options. The most cost effective would probably be ( again just my opinion )
to find a Toyota Rav 4 EV. This was a collaboration between Toyota and Tesla. As far as an EV Truck, Ford manufactured a Ranger EV between 1998 and 2002.
Some can still be found in nice shape for a somewhat reasonable price. Other option would be to pick up a DIY EV conversion. No warranty, probably
short range and lead batteries, but, possibly reasonably priced due to owner losing interest. A site I used to frequent is
www.evtradinpost.com/ (http://www.evtradinpost.com/)
Recently, my spyware is telling me that there is a threat detected when trying to access the site.
Haven't had issues, but, you never know these days. I bought a car off of there several years ago.
Hope this helps
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Just a few years ago, lithium was costing around a $1000 per kilowatt - Tesla announced the Power Wall 2 will be available in two offerings; a 7 kWh for $3000 and a 10 kWh system for only $3500. Therefore, simple math tells us that has brought the price of Lithium down on a retail level to only $350 per kW.
You're dividing the wrong numbers. Don't take $3500/10, that includes all the other stuff to make it work, take just the cell cost.
if 7 kWh is $3k, and 10 kWh is $3.5k then 3 kWh is $500, or $133/kWh so it's almost 3 times less expensive than you thought.
However, as was stated, the premium on the Zero is space. Zero has the most energy dense battery pack on the market, not Tesla. Zero's pack is about 30% more energy for a given volume than the Tesla does.
The cost of having a smaller battery with 18650's or 2170's wouldn't make sense until volume of sales goes up at least 10 times or more. Keeping one form factor is very important to keep cost down per unit. If the number of units goes up my an order of magnitude, that might be considered, like perhaps using LG Chem cells, but not for another 4 years or more, but I'd bet Zero stays with one battery provider to keep the cell chemistry the same, voltage curves the same, etc. Battery cost will come down over time, but if cost is a barrier to you getting a Zero, get a used one to start. I've already shown how buying a Zero at full price, it can pay for itself in less than 3 years if you ride a lot over using gas. So there's no need to complain about the price.
If you save more in gas and maintenance each month than your monthly payment on the bike, your Zero is basically free anyway. No reason not to get one right away if you still pay for gas, oil changes, and other maintenance. If your commute isn't very far the math may not work with a new bike, but may with a 2-3 year old Zero, although it might be worth getting a new Zero anyway for the performance capabilities. Just got to figure out what works for you, but there's no reason that everyone on this forum shouldn't be riding a Zero everyday! Gas is the past!
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What's a good EV 4-wheeled vehicle that can tow a 2-wheeled EV vehicle? Are there any EV trucks out there? How would you do this with say a Nissan Leaf?
A Leaf should easily be able to tow a motorcycle:
(http://i.imgur.com/x351Fhm.jpg)
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I would be very surprised if Tesla sells their Gigafactory cells on the open market. I bet they need all of their production to use in their own vehicles, especially the Model 3. They built that factory to supply cells to their own company, not to sell cells to their EV competitors, a few electric motorcycle manufacturers and to hobbyists. However, the factory production still might drive down prices due to supply and demand. As Tesla buys fewer cells from other battery manufacturers, those companies will have to look for other markets and will likely offer their batteries at a lower price to attract new customers. :) Either way, I bet Zero will stay with Farasis for many years in the future.
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According to the self proclaimed genius Elon - his new 2170 cell has the highest density/ energy of any cell made.
Also the claim on cost per Kw is about right - the Wall panel only includes a charger and Tesla's cost is around $200 per KW. Retail is around $300-350 - compare that to a zero 3K tank battery at $3,000 it comes to $1000 kw.
Also the statement only Tesla will have these cells or technology is not correct as their partner is Panosonic.
https://electrek.co/2016/11/02/tesla-panasonic-2170-battery-cell-highest-energy-density-cell-world-cheapest-elon-musk/
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According to the self proclaimed genius Elon - his new 2170 cell has the highest density/ energy of any cell made.
Your attempts at sarcasm fall seriously flat when you display your own ignorance by denigrating the intelligence of someone who clearly is very literally a genius.
The new cell format is referred to as 21-70, though some people use the old protocol and call it 21700. Either way, the 21 refers to the diameter of the cell in millimeters, the 70 (or 70.0 the old way, with the implied decimal) is the length, also in millimeters. And it does have the best energy density of any cell so far. But what other people are trying to explain to you is that because they're cylindrical, they don't pack together as well as the Farasis pouch cells, which are rectangular, so they pack together with very little wasted space. Packing cylinders into a rectangular space is pretty wasteful (think cigarettes in their box).
Tesla actually uses the space between the cells to their advantage; they've designed a curved, rectangular cross section coolant pipe which snakes between the cells, contacting each one and allowing them to water-cool (or warm, in very cold climates) the batteries. None of the electric motorcycle manufacturers I'm aware of are water-cooling their cells.
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I agree that cylindrical cells have a poor packing factor.
Yet, since it is easy to go fast and overheat a Zero battery, having some space for cooling might be a good thing for racing performance. To me its sad that the old Brammo with less power and less energy in the battery is beating Zeros in eMoto racing. The Zeros have overheating issues and are said to limp at the end of the race.
The subsidies for Tesla are overblow in the media by including the best case over 20 years into the future. Its not like Tesla is getting a check to build the Gigafactory. The $7500 federal tax credit goes to the consumer, not Tesla. Compare subsidies of other industries to be fair.
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Some interesting facts
"Lithium Supply
Global lithium supply is concentrated in relatively few locations; it is dominated by Australian hard-rock production (Greenbushes), and South American brine deposits in Argentina and Chile.
The market is currently dominated by a small number of companies which control around 50% of supply; Albemarle (ALB US), which owns Rockwood Lithium, SQM (SQM US), FMC (FMC US) and Chengdu Tianqi listed on the Shenzhen Exchange.
South American brine supply has risks of disruption, both geo-political and climatic. Supply in 2015 was disrupted by increased rainfall. Most recently, SQM’s Atacama core operations lease has been under threat from an arbitration case, where the lessor is seeking early termination of the lease.
New supply ramp-up has also experienced challenges and delays, such as at Orocobre’s operations in Argentina.
It is estimated that there is 200ktpa of advanced stage development capacity that could be brought online by 20207. This is far short of the predicted demand growth, which is likely to be favourable for future lithium prices."
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To me its sad that the old Brammo with less power and less energy in the battery is beating Zeros in eMoto racing. The Zeros have overheating issues and are said to limp at the end of the race.
I presume it's the battery pack that overheats? It almost has to be, since the motor and controller are externally accessible and something could certainly be done to increase cooling there...water spray if nothing else. Not too much you can do about the battery overheating though, short of replacing it with something designed for easier cooling, which would be a shame. Brandon told me that when he races on Pike's Peak, he packs ice around the battery pack to cool it down. I don't know what else you could do.
Keeping engines/motors cool is an interesting topic. I've heard that nitro-burning drag racers are liquid cooled, but have no radiator or water pump. The heads are jacketed, and they pour a couple of quarts of cool water in them before each run. The water has a high enough heat capacity that they can keep from overheating in the short time the engine runs. I also read recently that air-cooled engines are LESS susceptible to overheating on hot days than liquid-cooled engines, which seemed backwards, but it makes sense when you think about it. A air-cooled engine dumps heat from 400-degree engine parts directly into the airstream, while a liquid-cooled engine dumps heat from a radiator which doesn't get much above 250 degrees or so. So if the air temp rises by 50 degrees, the liquid-cooled engine loses a fair amount of the temperature differential, but the air-cooled engine doesn't lose as much.
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According to the self proclaimed genius Elon - his new 2170 cell has the highest density/ energy of any cell made.
Your attempts at sarcasm fall seriously flat when you display your own ignorance by denigrating the intelligence of someone who clearly is very literally a genius.
The new cell format is referred to as 21-70, though some people use the old protocol and call it 21700. Either way, the 21 refers to the diameter of the cell in millimeters, the 70 (or 70.0 the old way, with the implied decimal) is the length, also in millimeters. And it does have the best energy density of any cell so far. But what other people are trying to explain to you is that because they're cylindrical, they don't pack together as well as the Farasis pouch cells, which are rectangular, so they pack together with very little wasted space. Packing cylinders into a rectangular space is pretty wasteful (think cigarettes in their box).
Tesla actually uses the space between the cells to their advantage; they've designed a curved, rectangular cross section coolant pipe which snakes between the cells, contacting each one and allowing them to water-cool (or warm, in very cold climates) the batteries. None of the electric motorcycle manufacturers I'm aware of are water-cooling their cells.
Oh Boy - looks like we have a loyal Tesla /Elon fan here who for reasons unknown called me ignorant?
OK, since you brought it up, let me enlighten you. Most all of Elon’s achievements were financed with tax payer money (you & me) which we all paid through electric tax credits. Nevada alone provided $1.3 Billion in tax breaks. Regretfully, Elon has failed reciprocate any monies back to the general public (us) and continues to gouge the US public with prices on cars that are really worth only a fraction of their asking price.
For the most part, the remarkable Tesla S is a very simple design. Elon took an "ordinary" striped down sedan design, and by using a common motor, Elon put “7000†computer lap top batteries to power the car. This in itself shows its poor engineering since this is now well over 15,000 more connections than other electric that could fail. To make matters worse, the base S model is so striped down when you added the basic options (even the headliner) the car was well over $100 K
With Elon’s new "Way Over Priced" Tesla X, he continues to rip off this customers with a price that is 2-3 times the value of the car. On the Model X he goes through the trouble to copy other manufactures gull wing doors (in a futile attempt to make it look exotic) but like a idiot he put them on the back doors which are never used by the driver except when hauling grandma and grand kids! So now when you go to show off your new Model X you’ll have to force your wife or girlfriend to sit in the back seat so you can show off the goofy looking doors. LOL. I won’t bother to mention his model 3 / 300 mile affordable SUV which has increased in price numerous times - the Chevy Bolt is the Model 3 killer now.
Today, Elon continues to screw the US out of tax dollars - Even though direct manufacturer auto sales are prohibited in almost every state by franchise laws requiring that new cars be sold only by independent dealers and not direct - this snake continues to find loop holes to deprive cities and states of taxes by selling the car direct. This is the very reason Tesla has been banned from opening "Mail Order" dealers in many states.
Regarding the 2170 cell thanks for the schooling but most us already knew the cell demisions. The tread is focused on the cost of the cells. The 2170 cells could easily be adapted to the Zero, since the energy density is high they could fit in the Zeros battery space and bring the cost of the bike down $3-5,000. As we all know, Zero is charging $1000 kw - their tank battery confirms that.
Regards - Mike
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Matthew 7:15
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I'm not sure a Leaf is the best choice, but I am tired of burning gasoline to commute around.
I have a 50mi commute to work, I can definitely charge there while I'm working. However sometimes there are snow conditions and tire chains required. Also I seem to find the Zero DSR is in the shop a lot and I would need a way to haul it to and from the dealership for service.
My trusty Subaru needs some repairs and I was hoping to make it last until I can buy a Tesla Model 3. I don't think the Subaru will make it to then without $1000's in repairs.
Would it be worthwhile looking into getting a used Leaf? Is there another suggestion?
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Maybe, it's best to cut the increasing flow of tax-payers money to the fossil fuel industries as well. After decades of spending hundreds of billions dollarsubsidies ANNUALLY for exxon, Shell and other poluters in this world, one might think that's about enough.
But no. A guy named Rex Tillerson is coming along. This asshole will make sure americans keep paying Big Oil.
Yes, i'm paying too. The Netherlands; 5.5 to 7 billion a year subsidies for international oilcompanies. Tax payers money leaving my country.
I don't mind elon is getting his 50 cents compared to Big Oil and the Koch f@ckers.
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Maybe, it's best to cut the increasing flow of tax-payers money to the fossil fuel industries as well. After decades of spending hundreds of billions dollarsubsidies ANNUALLY for exxon, Shell and other poluters in this world, one might think that's about enough.
But no. A guy named Rex Tillerson is coming along. This asshole will make sure americans keep paying Big Oil.
Yes, i'm paying too. The Netherlands; 5.5 to 7 billion a year subsidies for international oilcompanies. Tax payers money leaving my country.
I don't mind elon is getting his 50 cents compared to Big Oil and the Koch f@ckers.
You're 110% correct we finally get fuel to around $2.00 and now the very criminal who made us pay $5.00 a gallon is back in the circuit to raise it back off. This is like using convicts for a jury.
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The 2170 cells could easily be adapted to the Zero, since the energy density is high they could fit in the Zeros battery space and bring the cost of the bike down $3-5,000. As we all know, Zero is charging $1000 kw - their tank battery confirms that.
No. You're still not cluing in. Cell density is high on the 21-70, but they don't pack together as densely as a rectangular cell. You're confusing cell energy density with overall BATTERY PACK density -- they're two very different things. You could NOT make a battery pack equivalent to Zero's with any cylindrical cell existing today, simply because there's too much empty space between the cylindrical cells when you package them together into a series/parallel array. Prismatic or pouch cells, which are rectangular in shape, simply pack together better. The new cell is incrementally better in energy density, but not nearly enough to make up for the big disparity in packing density.
I'm not going to bother educating you about Elon Musk and/or Tesla (they're not one and the same thing). You're welcome to stay willfully ignorant if you wish. But you don't really expect to find many sympathetic Trump voters here on this forum, do you?
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But you don't really expect to find many sympathetic Trump voters here on this forum, do you?
"sympathetic trump" is sort of an oxymoron isn't it? I don't think its possible that exists.
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The 2170 cells could easily be adapted to the Zero, since the energy density is high they could fit in the Zeros battery space and bring the cost of the bike down $3-5,000. As we all know, Zero is charging $1000 kw - their tank battery confirms that.
No. You're still not cluing in. Cell density is high on the 21-70, but they don't pack together as densely as a rectangular cell. You're confusing cell energy density with overall BATTERY PACK density -- they're two very different things. You could NOT make a battery pack equivalent to Zero's with any cylindrical cell existing today, simply because there's too much empty space between the cylindrical cells when you package them together into a series/parallel array. Prismatic or pouch cells, which are rectangular in shape, simply pack together better. The new cell is incrementally better in energy density, but not nearly enough to make up for the big disparity in packing density.
I'm not going to bother educating you about Elon Musk and/or Tesla (they're not one and the same thing). You're welcome to stay willfully ignorant if you wish. But you don't really expect to find many sympathetic Trump voters here on this forum, do you?
Doug "Read My Lips" because of the higher density/energy they take less space and therefore will fit. In addition, there is also plenty of additional space or did you forget about about the tank battery. In any case, no matter how Zero has to cram them in there, we don't care since it will lower the price of the bike $3-5,000 - that is unless Zero pulls an Elon on us and doesn't pass the saving.
Regarding your genius buddy Elon; my best advise is to "Study Up" before you start making broad statements about something you have no knowledge about, you don't have a clue regarding his crude business tactics of screwing the US tax payers out of money we gave him to start his business but I'll excuse your ignorance on the manner!
Regards
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I won't even begin on Elon's Space X progect which we're funding for him . . .
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Wow! The amount of disinformation being spread here about Tesla and Elon is some CNN level shit. All wrong! All unsubstantiated. Suggesting the 21-70s would work in a Zero? Haha. Someone wasn't very good with their legos as a kid!
And posting a headline doesn't make it true... Do you even science bro?
Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
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Zen...don't feed the trolls. I gave this guy a little bit of benefit of the doubt because for a while, he did honestly seem like he was interested in EVs, but he's shown beyond any doubt that he's a troll. Ignore him and he'll go back to his snug and cozy NRA forum.
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Let's get back to the topic guys - I know the truth hurts . . . .
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Doug "Read My Lips" because of the higher density/energy they take less space and therefore will fit. In addition, there is also plenty of additional space or did you forget about about the tank battery. In any case, no matter how Zero has to cram them in there, we don't care since it will lower the price of the bike $3-5,000 - that is unless Zero pulls an Elon on us and doesn't pass the saving.
Regarding your genius buddy Elon; my best advise is to "Study Up" before you start making broad statements about something you have no knowledge about, you don't have a clue regarding his crude business tactics of screwing the US tax payers out of money we gave him to start his business but I'll excuse your ignorance on the manner!
Regards
I had to do the math Low on Cash, you are right in one way, but it wouldn't work and here's why
Take your 2170, the interior volume is
(21mm/2)^2*3.14*700mm=242330 mm^3
The same amount of space for battery a Zero would take up is
21mm^2*700mm = 308,700 mm^3
or about 30% more. This means the volumetric density of the 21700 would have to be 30% higher than the Farasis cell.
The current Farasis cell is about 500 wh/L
The 3500 mAh Panasonic is about 700 wh/L
So initially it looks better, but they aren't packed wall to wall, there is some space for the cooling channels that don't just fit in the void locations.
But here's the kicker...
The 3500 Ah Panasonic cells Tesla uses have a max discharge of 3C
The current generation Farasis cell is 10C
So while the energy/volume is a wash pretty much, the bike would be over 3 times slower
There is a trade off between energy density and power density
If Tesla wants to continue to give acceleration updates, they will need to move towards a more power dense chemistry like Zero is using. If they did that they could supercharge even faster, and accelerate quicker, but they will lose a little range, or what is more likely is both will increase a little instead of energy increasing a lot.
Bottom line is you would need over 3 times the volume on the Zero to get the same power if you were using Tesla cells.
So the answer is no. Zero has the best possible pack for a motorcycle considering all the space restraints.
Does that make sense?
As far as the last statement, subsidizing new technology is not new. We still have to subsidize the oil and gas industry and they have been around a long time. It's something I have to remind some of my Trump supporting friends sometimes when they say we shouldn't have incentives for solar or electric vehicles. However its hard for them to understand. The common trend with them quite often is "low on brains"
lol, sorry. I had to, I'm laughing too hard not to share with others here. I know you and most people on this forum are smart enough not to have voted for Trump so I'll leave it for others to read. Luckily we have a fairly highly educated membership group here, so I'm guessing probably no Trump people, and to any of you who are, forgive me, not everyone is in that category, just seems like those I know personally who like him, also aren't the sharpest tacks in the box. I also just like to joke about him sometimes. He dislikes EV's and wants to bring back more oil, and coal instead, so you can imagine why I'm a little frustrated with him as a big EV supporter myself and big advocate of protecting the environment, and his appointment to the EPA was a guy who sued the EPA saying climate change isn't real. His appt to the Dept of Energy is someone who couldn't remember what the Dept of energy was in a debate! To appoint these people? I mean how dumb can you be? I want to start the catch phrase "Dumb as Trump" sometimes. Ahh, don't get me started. I could go on forever about how he's proven that inheriting a lot of money can make up for a very low IQ and NPD. (Narcissistic Personality Disorder)
I like ElectricZen's comment and I wish I could say it to him "Do you even science bro?" Hmmm. Sorry for the rant, not sure how I got off topic there. I think the article you posted sounded like it was written by someone misinformed about understanding how things work. I'll bring it back to "No" the 2170's would not be better in a Zero. Sorry about the rest of that.
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I'm not sure a Leaf is the best choice, but I am tired of burning gasoline to commute around.
I have a 50mi commute to work, I can definitely charge there while I'm working. However sometimes there are snow conditions and tire chains required. Also I seem to find the Zero DSR is in the shop a lot and I would need a way to haul it to and from the dealership for service.
My trusty Subaru needs some repairs and I was hoping to make it last until I can buy a Tesla Model 3. I don't think the Subaru will make it to then without $1000's in repairs.
Would it be worthwhile looking into getting a used Leaf? Is there another suggestion?
Leafs have no problems with snow chains(and you can preheat the car while charging). And towing isn't a problem either, hell Nissan even uses them to tow their cars from the production line to the docks:
(http://i.imgur.com/EuW1jfF.jpg?1)
There are lots of plug-in hybrids that should take you almost to work on electric mode but then you're lugging around a whole petrol drive train that you barely use. I don't know your local market etc. but my gut feelings says that the Leaf is a good choice.
I presume it's the battery pack that overheats? It almost has to be, since the motor and controller are externally accessible and something could certainly be done to increase cooling there...water spray if nothing else. Not too much you can do about the battery overheating though, short of replacing it with something designed for easier cooling, which would be a shame. Brandon told me that when he races on Pike's Peak, he packs ice around the battery pack to cool it down. I don't know what else you could do.
Liquid nitrogen perhaps?
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Doug "Read My Lips" because of the higher density/energy they take less space and therefore will fit. In addition, there is also plenty of additional space or did you forget about about the tank battery. In any case, no matter how Zero has to cram them in there, we don't care since it will lower the price of the bike $3-5,000 - that is unless Zero pulls an Elon on us and doesn't pass the saving.
Regarding your genius buddy Elon; my best advise is to "Study Up" before you start making broad statements about something you have no knowledge about, you don't have a clue regarding his crude business tactics of screwing the US tax payers out of money we gave him to start his business but I'll excuse your ignorance on the manner!
Regards
I had to do the math Low on Cash, you are right in one way, but it wouldn't work and here's why
Take your 2170, the interior volume is
(21mm/2)^2*3.14*700mm=242330 mm^3
The same amount of space for battery a Zero would take up is
21mm^2*700mm = 308,700 mm^3
or about 30% more. This means the volumetric density of the 21700 would have to be 30% higher than the Farasis cell.
The current Farasis cell is about 500 wh/L
The 3500 mAh Panasonic is about 700 wh/L
So initially it looks better, but they aren't packed wall to wall, there is some space for the cooling channels that don't just fit in the void locations.
But here's the kicker...
The 3500 Ah Panasonic cells Tesla uses have a max discharge of 3C
The current generation Farasis cell is 10C
So while the energy/volume is a wash pretty much, the bike would be over 3 times slower
There is a trade off between energy density and power density
If Tesla wants to continue to give acceleration updates, they will need to move towards a more power dense chemistry like Zero is using. If they did that they could supercharge even faster, and accelerate quicker, but they will lose a little range, or what is more likely is both will increase a little instead of energy increasing a lot.
Bottom line is you would need over 3 times the volume on the Zero to get the same power if you were using Tesla cells.
So the answer is no. Zero has the best possible pack for a motorcycle considering all the space restraints.
Does that make sense?
As far as the last statement, subsidizing new technology is not new. We still have to subsidize the oil and gas industry and they have been around a long time. It's something I have to remind some of my Trump supporting friends sometimes when they say we shouldn't have incentives for solar or electric vehicles. However its hard for them to understand. The common trend with them quite often is "low on brains"
lol, sorry. I had to, I'm laughing too hard not to share with others here. I know you and most people on this forum are smart enough not to have voted for Trump so I'll leave it for others to read. Luckily we have a fairly highly educated membership group here, so I'm guessing probably no Trump people, and to any of you who are, forgive me, not everyone is in that category, just seems like those I know personally who like him, also aren't the sharpest tacks in the box. I also just like to joke about him sometimes. He dislikes EV's and wants to bring back more oil, and coal instead, so you can imagine why I'm a little frustrated with him as a big EV supporter myself and big advocate of protecting the environment, and his appointment to the EPA was a guy who sued the EPA saying climate change isn't real. His appt to the Dept of Energy is someone who couldn't remember what the Dept of energy was in a debate! To appoint these people? I mean how dumb can you be? I want to start the catch phrase "Dumb as Trump" sometimes. Ahh, don't get me started. I could go on forever about how he's proven that inheriting a lot of money can make up for a very low IQ and NPD. (Narcissistic Personality Disorder)
I like ElectricZen's comment and I wish I could say it to him "Do you even science bro?" Hmmm. Sorry for the rant, not sure how I got off topic there. I think the article you posted sounded like it was written by someone misinformed about understanding how things work. I'll bring it back to "No" the 2170's would not be better in a Zero. Sorry about the rest of that.
Terry
Thanks for the post of the detailed information and the sizing up of the 2170 in comparison to the density of the Farasis pack. The initial idea of the post was more in the scope of the cost of the Farassis cells being more competitive now that there will be serious competition with the Tesla cells. Regretfully this thread went south when a user got his feeling hurt because he was mis-informed on the Tesla site what a great guy Elon was.
Since you're in tune to the physical size of the cells in a Zero application - just how much space and more importantly how much weight do you feel it would take to do a 2170 installation in a Zero. As we are all aware the cost of a Zero is its own biggest hindrance to most riders. The 2170 would be a game changer in the bikes price. Using your calculations would it be possible to get a 13K pack in the space of the frame?
If not - even if we dedicated the tank space to cells to reduce the cost of the Zero it would seem to me it would be a major advantage since then the "Electric Bike" could be more competitive on the ICE market.
I feel strongly that in due time be it Zero, a rider or another manufacture, we will indeed see 2170 powered bikes. As you are aware while the cylinder shape of the cells takes more space, however the design in nature would lend to simple air cooling / heating of the cells which would be a major advantage to our application.
Regards
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I still don't think that the Tesla Gigafactory cells are going to be offered to any company not associated with the factory any time soon. The companies that have an interest in the factory need the cells for their own products and are not going to want to hand them out to the public until all of their battery needs are satisfied - and that could take a while. ;)
So this discussion, while technically interesting, is probably raising a moot point, unless the cells were sourced from some other manufacturer.
As for me, I didn't vote for Hillary or Trump. I voted for Gary Johnson the Libertarian guy who didn't know where Aleppo was. Kind of a waste of my vote I know, but I felt I had to make a (spitting into the wind) point about our two-party system. :(
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Terry
Thanks for the post of the detailed information and the sizing up of the 2170 in comparison to the density of the Farasis pack. The initial idea of the post was more in the scope of the cost of the Farassis cells being more competitive now that there will be serious competition with the Tesla cells. Regretfully this thread went south when a user got his feeling hurt because he was mis-informed on the Tesla site what a great guy Elon was.
Since you're in tune to the physical size of the cells in a Zero application - just how much space and more importantly how much weight do you feel it would take to do a 2170 installation in a Zero. As we are all aware the cost of a Zero is its own biggest hindrance to most riders. The 2170 would be a game changer in the bikes price. Using your calculations would it be possible to get a 13K pack in the space of the frame?
If not - even if we dedicated the tank space to cells to reduce the cost of the Zero it would seem to me it would be a major advantage since then the "Electric Bike" could be more competitive on the ICE market.
I feel strongly that in due time be it Zero, a rider or another manufacture, we will indeed see 2170 powered bikes. As you are aware while the cylinder shape of the cells takes more space, however the design in nature would lend to simple air cooling / heating of the cells which would be a major advantage to our application.
Regards
Hey Mike,
First I don't think the batteries themselves cost $1000/kWh. You're getting that from the cost of a powertank which has its own BMS ($500-$800 or more itself), contactor, fuse, Anderson connector, and then is the price of the battery to the user, not what Zero pays for it.
My guess is it's less than half that but lets say $500/kWh to Zero. The difference isn't enough to try to design something new, when you would need 3 times as many cells to get the same power.
I can appreciate what you are thinking about, but the danger of a user trying to tab weld his own pack (Tesla uses an automated machine that is perfect at this) could be very dangerous and I just don't think worth the risk by any means.
However I say that and if you wanted to "add" range. You could build your own pack of 2170's that adds up to 116 volts, and have your own switch that you can connect once the bike is on that connects to your controller.
Caution, there are many dangers in doing this!! In fact this is so dangerous that I am not recommending anyone ever try this. You can destroy your Zero and cause your auxiliary pack to catch fire if you make a mistake or crash your bike. But since I've said that, here you go...
One you need to make sure the packs are within 1-2 volts when connecting. You can not leave it connected because the Sevcon will not turn on if it senses voltage, it will think the last time it turned on the contactor welded shut from arcing.
Two, your discharge curve will be slightly different, as long as you ride real slow and charge slow this shouldn't be a problem. However if you ride fast, you could end up pulling all power from the 2170 cells which are not designed themselves to put out a lot of power (3C discharge limit) unless you parallel like 30 or more of them together like Tesla does to get short bursts of acceleration with preheating them to 50C, and then cooling them immediately after. A complicated process that you won't be able to do on a Zero. Designing a liquid heating and cooling system for a bike doesn't make sense.
You also need to fuse your pack as close to the battery terminals as possible, although I just realized since you can't heat or cool these cells it's a no go. These cells have a very high internal resistance compared to Zero's Farasis cells. They are going to get very hot and you will need thermistors placed all over the pack with a warning light to pull over and wait for a few hours to let them cool. This just isn't going to work. These cells were originally designed to be in a application with very little power usage (high max energy/low power) i.e. max laptop runtime, but only using like 30 watts.
Tesla might have them "burst" power for 2.4 seconds, and many cells can do that for a very very short time and be ok, but they were designed to have like a 1/3C discharge. Tesla has like a 250 mile range, and this is at least 3 hours of driving. The cells were originally designed for laptops which might be also on for 3 or more hours. It will be hard to ride your Zero in a way that you only discharge the pack over 3 hours time. You would need to ride at about 40 mph or slower.
Again I appreciate your persistence but this just isn't going to work right now.
Here's where I see it possibly working one day. If Zero ever built a touring bike, and had twice the battery volume, you could possibly use batteries designed for laptops, as you would have enough to meet the power requirements of going down the highway, and short bursts of acceleration. Would probably not be offered in the SR or DSR package, just as an S.
You would have twice the range for perhaps the same cost in batteries, but performance is limited and where do you put twice as many batteries of the current volume? Then comes the issue with charging. If you are building a touring bike, you want to charge fast! Trust me I know this. You ideally want 15 minute charge stops. Tesla has a handicap, it's the cells it uses. It's charging as fast as it can with max cooling once the cell gets to 50C. And it takes over an hour for a full charge, but 80% in 40 minutes. Other manufacturers are already doing 80% in 20 minutes, because their cells have lower internal resistance AND cooling.
My guess is Tesla realized this a long time ago, and part of the reason to build the Gigafactory was to make it's own custom cells. I'd be willing to bet the 2170 cells will have lower energy density and higher power density than the current 18650's do. As we go forward with EV's the answer is power density, where in the early days it was energy density. Everyone was fighting for the vehicles just to have a useful daily range, but now that we have that, to also make it good for long distance trips, extremely fast charging is needed, and so the cells need to be more power dense than energy dense. As long as Teslas can get from supercharger to supercharger, it's best to let them charge faster once they get there.
Technically Zero could be able to charge faster than any of the car manufacturers if you could start charging with the pack very warm, and then hold it there. But you would need cooling, and that's not going to happen on a motorcycle very easily.
Terry
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I still don't think that the Tesla Gigafactory cells are going to be offered to any company not associated with the factory any time soon. The companies that have an interest in the factory need the cells for their own products and are not going to want to hand them out to the public until all of their battery needs are satisfied - and that could take a while. ;)
Tesla will indeed use the batteries in their own products, that's the whole reason they build the factory in the first place. On the other hand it will free up capacity in the other factories, Tesla bought a lot of batteries from them, like a lot a lot.
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Thanks to all for the reply’s - My $1000 kw estimate was for “ready to use powerâ€. I was using a retail figure of the tank battery and not meant to represent the wholesale or retail of the Zero’s pack itself.
My original post was more inline of a lower price of the Zero pack to hopefully make electric bikes more affordable and competitive. Keep in mind, cells become 5-6% more efficient each year, this means that in a few years, our Zero pack size will reduce considerable in size.
I feel a fair retail estimate for the Zero pack is around $700 kw or around $9,000 retail. In retrospect, a 13kw / 2170 pack at $4000, would be half of the cost of the current Farisis pouch pack. In long term, If Zero or in fact any manufacture could offer an electric bike for $5000 less than current prices, it would be a major step forward in making them affordable.
As we look at the cost of the Zero motorcycle less electronics, we have to realize the actual bikes value is around $5,000, the rest is electronics. If manufactures can build and sell a motorcycle with an engine and transmission for $7000 and make money, then we know the Zero chassis must be $4-5k. Using these figures, the end user is paying a retail amount of around $10,000 for the pack since a DSR/SR is around $18,000 delivered.
Since I have been building battery packs way before 1992 when I designed the first electric radio control helicopter, I could easily buy a Tesla Wall 2 and build a 2170 Zero pack, however I have no desire to build batteries, I’m perfectly happy with the power and range of my “Stock†2017 DSR.
The 2170 cells could easily be factory or sub factory welded in any arrangement to fit the Zero’s present or modified battery case or arranged to conform to any manufactures specs. I have worked with companies in the RC industry who perform this service for numerous RC manufactures.
Again, I feel the cylinder shape of the 2170 cells would be an advantage over pouch cells since it provides a void between the cells for uniform air cooling or heating, which is an important factor in different climates. Another advantage would be for “Race†applications where cooling is needed for aggressive use and fast charging, something the pouch cells can not provide.
Keep in mind, unlike a larger pouch cell, due to the relative small amperage of each 2170 individual cell, very little heat is generated in the cell itself. This combined by the fact there is air volume around each cell allows them to cool more efficiently then pouch cells.
The 2170 cell is roughly 10% larger than the 18650, and has 30% more capacity so its power density is pretty amazing. It is my understanding that Panasonic designed the 2170 chemistry and the first cells were produced in Japan by Panosonic.
As we all know, Tesla will be the world manufacture, what a switch - now we’ll be shipping cells to china and Japan instead of the opposite, Trump will like that! The Panasonic Corporation will also be the conduit to third party vendors. The short term for Tesla and the 2170 cell is production for the Tesla Wall 2 to recover cost - then of course the 2170 will be the bread and butter to power all future Tesla models to include the Tesla 3 & X.
The motivation and timing for Tesla’s development of the 2170 cell was to make Model 3 a reality. Essentially, when Elon announced the Model 3, it was impossible to build the car with the quoted range at the published price. Using the18650 cells from Panasonic for the Model 3 was not even an option for cost/performance reasons. If not for the 2170’s existence, the Model 3 project would have less range, more cost, or be scraped! The primary reason for the Model 3’s delay is simple, it was waiting for the 2170 cell to happen.
Regarding cost - Tesla announced once production is up to speed, their cost on the 2170 may be as low as $100 kw. At present, the larger Power Wall systems are at a cost of only $250 kw. Even though the chemistry is out of the bag for other companies to benefit, few if any manufactures will be able to compete with Tesla since no one, not even China or Japan can compete with the Giga factory.
Regards - Mike
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Other manufacturers are already doing 80% in 20 minutes, because their cells have lower internal resistance AND cooling.
For example the Energica Ego is supposed to be able to charge this quickly, and I suspect even that will be obsolete tech in a couple of years time. So your right Tesla needs to play catch up.
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By the way Electric Terry - I wanted to mention you are my Electric Bike Hero and the reason I bought my 2017 DSR!
Thanks for all your efforts!
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By the way Electric Terry - I wanted to mention you are my Electric Bike Hero and the reason I bought my 2017 DSR!
Thanks for all your efforts!
Mike, after all that heated discussion, its nice to hear your positive message.