ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
Makes And Models => Zero Motorcycles Forum | 2013+ => Topic started by: GaryArt1 on March 29, 2019, 10:22:38 PM
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So I was reading a Forbes article that was an interview of Zero’s CEO Sam Paschel and here are some interesting things I got out of it:
Paschel: We sell between 2,000 and 10,000 motorcycles per year. We're cranking our SR/Fs on two shifts and have the capacity to build 10,000 of those on their own in a given year.
So i know this is a HUGE range but it gives us an estimate on Zero sales. I have seen some article say they sell 750 bikes a year. Also good to see they are really working on getting out the SR/Fs. Especially if this quote is true:
Paschel: We've been very lucky in that we've been following the EV curve and not the motorcycle curve. Last year, there was only one month where we didn't set wholesale and retail records for the business. I believe our largest challenge now will be: Can we keep up with demand? The response to the SR/F has been overwhelming. Our challenge is how we can ramp in the face of an exponential growth curve.
So it seems Zero is doing pretty well and the SR/F may be their biggest hit yet if we are to believe what we read.
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He can basically say whatever he wants. There's no reason (or incentive) for him to tell the truth about any of that stuff.
My opinion is the numbers sound high.
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Most importantly, they might now totally hang the S/DS platform owners to dry. Support / service has been spotty for years now, trying to go after another piece of the pie doesn't promise any improvement, quite the opposite.
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The CEO's job is to exude confidence, so yes take it with a grain of salt, etc.
What I can confirm so far:
- The serial numbers on the bikes reveal a basic estimate of production levels, which are above 2000 per year.
- I've seen the SR/F in person and examined the owners manual. It looks more serviceable.
- The bike shields HV components better from rain and road debris.
- The systems design on the SR/F looks more robust against component faults.
- I think when something on it fails, you'll get an informative message, and the bike will remain rideable in many more conditions, or at least able to produce diagnostics and keep the lights on.
- More parts of it seem expressly designed for troubleshooting isolation techniques and for separable replacement.
I think the engineering team did a good job here. I would like to see some of these improvements (like dropping the Calex model for the newer 3kW chargers) retrofitted to the SDS and XMX platforms for everyone's benefit and I'll try to speak up for that.
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Projected sales of 2000 bikes for 2019 is reasonable, but maybe slightly optimistic based on https://electricmotorcycleforum.com/boards/index.php?topic=8855.0. He could have also said they sell between 2000 and ten billion bikes per year. There's no good reason I can think of to make the bottom bound of the range any lower than necessary. 10,000 SR/Fs sounds completely theoretical. Maybe it makes a good quote, but I don't see 10,000 electric motorcycles from all makes and models being sold.
SR/F sounds like a great bike, but I think the S/DS platform will continue to be the biggest sellers. I believe it would be a big mistake for Zero to treat S/DS the way they did the 2012 and earlier models. Time will tell.
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Projected sales of 2000 bikes for 2019 is reasonable, but maybe slightly optimistic based on https://electricmotorcycleforum.com/boards/index.php?topic=8855.0. He could have also said they sell between 2000 and ten billion bikes per year. There's no good reason I can think of to make the bottom bound of the range any lower than necessary. 10,000 SR/Fs sounds completely theoretical. Maybe it makes a good quote, but I don't see 10,000 electric motorcycles from all makes and models being sold.
SR/F sounds like a great bike, but I think the S/DS platform will continue to be the biggest sellers. I believe it would be a big mistake for Zero to treat S/DS the way they did the 2012 and earlier models. Time will tell.
Yes, I guess he could say whatever he wants. Being Zero is not a publicly traded company, we will never really know for sure. Then again I guess we can think that about most CEOs and politicians these days. I think using the serial numbers is probably the closest approximation we could get. At least talking with my dealer, sales keep going up each year. I think this year will be a good year for them between the SR/F and their big presence at the motorcycle shows.
I can see the DS/FX still doing well in 2019. They are very different riding bikes. They may lose a few sales from the people who are waiting to see if some of the SR/F improvements trickle down next model year to the other lines. If I wanted a DSR, I would have a tough choice whether to wait until next year.
I do believe the SR sales will be hit hard. Not sure why they even came out with 2019 SR model. The price is so close between the SR and the SR/F. I can a still see people buying the S if they really don’t care about the improvements and want to save some money but I can’t see anyone going for a SR right now over the SR/F. I can also see some of the people considering the SR/F jumping ship to the Lightning Strike. I think the Strike offers great value balanced by great risk in the company.
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Very interesting article. But there is an even more interesting quote at the end of the same article :
Journalist : Can you tell us about your long term view on Zero ?
Paschel : Well to be fair electricity is just a transition toward more efficient solutions.
Journalist : What do you mean ?
Paschel : In the really long term, hydrogen and compressed air offer the highest energy density, because with electricity you lose lots of energy turning coal or oil into electricity. This is why we are working on a new SR/G, based on compressed air technology. It will have a very low weight (300 lbs) because it will use an helium ballast, and the prototype already offers an impress 300 ftlb torque. We think that in the long term, governments will develop compressed air stations. in the short term, you can charge the SR/G at home in about 8 hours using a hand pump. Get out of the way, the new Zero is coming !
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Very interesting article. But there is an even more interesting quote at the end of the same article :
Journalist : Can you tell us about your long term view on Zero ?
Paschel : Well to be fair electricity is just a transition toward more efficient solutions.
Journalist : What do you mean ?
Paschel : In the really long term, hydrogen and compressed air offer the highest energy density, because with electricity you lose lots of energy turning coal or oil into electricity. This is why we are working on a new SR/G, based on compressed air technology. It will have a very low weight (300 lbs) because it will use an helium ballast, and the prototype already offers an impress 300 ftlb torque. We think that in the long term, governments will develop compressed air stations. in the short term, you can charge the SR/G at home in about 8 hours using a hand pump. Get out of the way, the new Zero is coming !
Um....April fool's I hope?
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Well in that case, how about methane powered bikes. Running low on fuel, stop at a Spanish Restaurant for some rice and beans and self power your way home.
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Very interesting article. But there is an even more interesting quote at the end of the same article :
Journalist : Can you tell us about your long term view on Zero ?
Paschel : Well to be fair electricity is just a transition toward more efficient solutions.
Journalist : What do you mean ?
Paschel : In the really long term, hydrogen and compressed air offer the highest energy density, because with electricity you lose lots of energy turning coal or oil into electricity. This is why we are working on a new SR/G, based on compressed air technology. It will have a very low weight (300 lbs) because it will use an helium ballast, and the prototype already offers an impress 300 ftlb torque. We think that in the long term, governments will develop compressed air stations. in the short term, you can charge the SR/G at home in about 8 hours using a hand pump. Get out of the way, the new Zero is coming !
Nice job. I went and looked for the article, here's a link (https://www.forbes.com/sites/billroberson/2019/03/29/will-zeros-hot-new-20k-srf-ebike-raise-the-performance-bar-too-far-above-harleys-30k-livewire/).
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Compressed air? What a bunch of BS. That has been tried many times before and between the size of the air tank, the amount of energy it takes to compress the air and the lack of any amount of efficiency of a compressed air powered motor, you won't get far. They have tried compressed air powered buses before and you don't see that many rolling around, do you? ::) Better to just go back to steam power. Now there is a well proven technology. ;)
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Compressed air? What a bunch of BS. That has been tried many times before and between the size of the air tank, the amount of energy it takes to compress the air and the lack of any amount of efficiency of a compressed air powered motor, you won't get far. They have tried compressed air powered buses before and you don't see that many rolling around, do you? ::) Better to just go back to steam power. Now there is a well proven technology. ;)
Richard,
Did you check the date of that posting? ;)
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The SR/N features a mini liquid salt thorium reactor instead of a battery. The good thing is that it only needs to be fueled once at the factory. The bad thing is that you have to refill the water tank for the steam turbine every 15 miles.
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The SR/N features a mini liquid salt thorium reactor instead of a battery. The good thing is that it only needs to be fueled once at the factory. The bad thing is that you have to refill the water tank for the steam turbine every 15 miles.
No, you see, they figured out how to produce electricity via thermionic conversion. So it’s all solid state aside from that ... molten salt.
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The ugly thing : don't crash near a populated area with one of these.
The SR/N features a mini liquid salt thorium reactor instead of a battery. The good thing is that it only needs to be fueled once at the factory. The bad thing is that you have to refill the water tank for the steam turbine every 15 miles.
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Compressed air? What a bunch of BS. That has been tried many times before and between the size of the air tank, the amount of energy it takes to compress the air and the lack of any amount of efficiency of a compressed air powered motor, you won't get far. They have tried compressed air powered buses before and you don't see that many rolling around, do you? ::) Better to just go back to steam power. Now there is a well proven technology. ;)
Richard,
Did you check the date of that posting? ;)
Instead of a compressed air-powered motorcycle, I am waiting for the new BMW monowheel. ;)
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The SR/N features a mini liquid salt thorium reactor instead of a battery. The good thing is that it only needs to be fueled once at the factory. The bad thing is that you have to refill the water tank for the steam turbine every 15 miles.
You think you're joking, but honest to god, Ford actually toyed with the idea of a nuclear powered vehicle back in the 50s:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Nucleon
I'm SO glad I wasn't alive in the 50s.
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The SR/N features a mini liquid salt thorium reactor instead of a battery. The good thing is that it only needs to be fueled once at the factory. The bad thing is that you have to refill the water tank for the steam turbine every 15 miles.
You think you're joking, but honest to god, Ford actually toyed with the idea of a nuclear powered vehicle back in the 50s:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Nucleon
I'm SO glad I wasn't alive in the 50s.
I was and I can confirm that there was a lot of radiation in our environment at the time due to above ground H2 bomb testing around the world - including a few tests in space. I had a two-year old brother who died of brain cancer, which the doctors claimed was likely caused by irradiated milk. :(
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Compressed air? What a bunch of BS. That has been tried many times before and between the size of the air tank, the amount of energy it takes to compress the air and the lack of any amount of efficiency of a compressed air powered motor, you won't get far. They have tried compressed air powered buses before and you don't see that many rolling around, do you? ::) Better to just go back to steam power. Now there is a well proven technology. ;)
A few years ago there was that concept called O2 Pursuit. A dirt bike that was running on compressed air. It had pretty reasonable specs - 62 miles of range, and up to 87mph. I followed the news about it for a while, and then it disappeared. Not sure if those specs have been independently confirmed. The issue with compressed air as energy source is that as the tank is discharging, it's cooling off, densifying the air, and reducing the pressure as a result. The efficiency of "charging" air tanks doesn't matter much if your energy comes from renewable sources. Big advantage of such design is ability to swap out tanks as quickly, as we do in SCUBA diving, and extremely low cost of such tanks in comparison to say Lithium batteries. So even if the bike only had half the advertised range, it would work perfectly for outdoor enthusiasts. Btw, tank fills range between $5 and $7 at SCUBA shops here in PNW, and that's clean breathable air as opposed to technical air.
https://inhabitat.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2012/11/o2-pursuit-final_363.jpg
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Please tell us what is "technical air" as opposed to "clean breathable air". probably not that that has much to do with riding powered two wheelers or other stuff, but I am curious.
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Scuba air is filtered dried and most importantly pumped by a non oil-lubricated pump. You can't have oil in breathing air like most normal compressors will give or it can kill you.
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Please tell us what is "technical air" as opposed to "clean breathable air". probably not that that has much to do with riding powered two wheelers or other stuff, but I am curious.
Yep, what flattetyre correctly pointed out above.
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And here I was thinking that "technical air" was just another term for expensive air. ;)
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I get it, it was an April Fools joke, but the old air car dream is still being pitched. If only to laughter. But hey if you can't trust Pat Boone who can you trust?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdqOUJ7em0o
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I get it, it was an April Fools joke, but the old air car dream is still being pitched.
It has been done :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compressed_air_energy_storage#/media/File:Compressed_Air_Loco.jpg
Wikipedia article also claims the energy density of Compressed Air batteries would be on par with Lead-Acid (so like 4 times less than Lithium Ion). Which technically means
there can be plenty of practical mobile applications.
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Don't believe a word Sam Paschel says. Zero is likely still sitting on substantial 2018 inventory, close to 20% of production which was less than 2300. The VINS tell the story. Despite this, Zero has for years repeatedly claimed robust sales growth and predicted next years sales will be up 50% even stating double this year. All lies. Imagine if Ducati, Harley or GM told such tales. Public company or not, it's fraud where it influences consumer and dealer behavior, induces you to buy and invest in the brand. It's a crime. In the best of circumstances Zero has no ability to produce anything close to 10,000 motorcycles this year, let alone 10,000 SR/F. If Zero is around in 2020, maybe 2000 units post recall, if Lightning doesn't eat their lunch. Paschel has no business running an automotive company. No management chops. Hired because Invus did not want anyone in the job with industry experience or a moral compass. He's more interested in telling tales then building a competent vehicle. His actions are criminal, not only according to counsel for the class action. Zero is staring down the barrel at multiple recalls from US and EU authorities that have been a long time coming.
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Don't believe a word Sam Paschel says. Zero is likely still sitting on substantial 2018 inventory, close to 20% of production which was less than 2300. The VINS tell the story. Despite this, Zero has for years repeatedly claimed robust sales growth and predicted next years sales will be up 50% even stating double this year. All lies. Imagine if Ducati, Harley or GM told such tales. Public company or not, it's fraud where it influences consumer and dealer behavior, induces you to buy and invest in the brand. It's a crime. In the best of circumstances Zero has no ability to produce anything close to 10,000 motorcycles this year, let alone 10,000 SR/F. If Zero is around in 2020, maybe 2000 units post recall, if Lightning doesn't eat their lunch. Paschel has no business running an automotive company. No management chops. Hired because Invus did not want anyone in the job with industry experience or a moral compass. He's more interested in telling tales then building a competent vehicle. His actions are criminal, not only according to counsel for the class action. Zero is staring down the barrel at multiple recalls from US and EU authorities that have been a long time coming.
From the tone of your email, I am guessing you have a a bone to pick with Zero. Based on the tone alone and your anger, I have more of a chance believing the CEO than someone who has a general hated for the company. You seem to throw a lot of opinion around as fact with less to back it up than him.
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I haven't heard of any recent official, or even unofficial recalls, of Zero motorcycles, NearDeath. Do you have any specifics and details regarding that claim? And if you do, what is the source?
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I get it, it was an April Fools joke, but the old air car dream is still being pitched.
It has been done :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compressed_air_energy_storage#/media/File:Compressed_Air_Loco.jpg
Wikipedia article also claims the energy density of Compressed Air batteries would be on par with Lead-Acid (so like 4 times less than Lithium Ion). Which technically means
there can be plenty of practical mobile applications.
Yeah it's been around since the 1800's although so has the electric car. But batteries have made huge advancements where as air is still air. For the power and range you'd be better off walking or riding a bicycle in my opinion.
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Disagree that compressed air tech can't be more advanced than 19th century. Material science marches on.
What's up with NearDeath? AprilFools Troll? A bomb throwing employee of a competitor?
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Looking at his post history he claims his ignition turned off while riding and nearly killed him. I would be pissed too if that happened.
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Wait, did Zero CEO talk about compressed air vehicles?
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Looking at his post history he claims his ignition turned off while riding and nearly killed him. I would be pissed too if that happened.
Yes and I am 100% for members to post problems they have encountered especially if they are dangerous. This is helpful to the forum members and may save them from future problems of their own. Posting a rant where you personally attack the CEO because you are mad at his company is not really helpful (except maybe to him). Posting about some fictitious future recalls that no one knows anything of but him or making up statements and presenting them as facts is useless.
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Yeah it's been around since the 1800's although so has the electric car. But batteries have made huge advancements where as air is still air. For the power and range you'd be better off walking or riding a bicycle in my opinion.
Carbon fiber wrapper air tanks haven't been around for that long, and allow to compress air to much higher pressures while maintaining a lightweight package.
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Ok but you can have a Tesla Roadster 2 or a dorky farting bubble car. Choose wisely. :)
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Ok but you can have a Tesla Roadster 2 or a dorky farting bubble car. Choose wisely. :)
Tesla is seriously (as much as Elon can ever be) considering putting cold gas (air) thrusters on Roadster 2.
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No they're not, that was a joke. Compressed gas has too low specific impulse and needs too much support equipment.
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No they're not, that was a joke. Compressed gas has too low specific impulse and needs too much support equipment.
Well, somebody forgot to edit wiki page then :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Roadster_(2020)
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Regardless, you see the point, right?
You can use air to move you around but it's not best by any means.
Any time I hear great for "city" transportation I roll my eyes. It means it's so slow, small, and weak it won't work anywhere else.
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Regardless, you see the point, right?
I do see the point, yes.
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The SR/N features a mini liquid salt thorium reactor instead of a battery. The good thing is that it only needs to be fueled once at the factory. The bad thing is that you have to refill the water tank for the steam turbine every 15 miles.
Unless you do all your riding in the rain.
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No they're not, that was a joke. Compressed gas has too low specific impulse and needs too much support equipment.
Well, somebody forgot to edit wiki page then :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Roadster_(2020)
https://electrek.co/2019/07/13/tesla-roadster-spacex-thruster-hidden-license-plate-elon-musk/
Not standard equipment, you have to buy the Space-X add-on package
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He can basically say whatever he wants.
...to be false would be against the law, tho admittedly our enforcement is reserved for securities and tends to be highly selective and aimed at high-profile cases instead of equally across the board.
-Crissa