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[Richard230]

I am not sure where to post this item, so I will dump it here:  I just received the November issue of American Motorcyclist, (the AMA's monthly rag) and on page 35 is an item about Zero Motorcycles sponsoring the 2012 AMA motorcycle hall of fame rings (as in a farkle that you put on your finger).  The article says that Scot Harden, VP of global marketing and a member of the AMA's Hall of Fame, says that Zero Motorcycles is proud to be a part of the Hall of Fame induction ceremony.  Harden says: "On behalf of the entire staff of Zero Motorcycles, it is a proud honor indeed to support the Hall of Fame as (an) official ring sponsor of the 2012 induction ceremony.  The men and women selected reflect the highest level of achievement and accomplishment possible in our sport." What the article doesn't mention is how much Zero had to pay the AMA to become a "ring sponsor". 

[machone]

Great thread.

Since ordering a 2013 S I've had nothing but sneers or incredulity from friends and colleagues. This hasn't been a surprise. After posting on the Brammo forum and this about a few electric bike shortfalls or people's perception of ebike shortfalls I'm coming around to the view that as an early adopter you just have to pay for the privilege.

I'd like to see better deals from both the manufacturers and better consumer incentive from governments. Extended warranties or purchase plans, lease upgrade plans or buy back schemes don't seem like unreasonable expectations. I've read with interest about how profit margins are tight but I remain unconvinced. For a three year old(give or take) technology that is not free from problems I think there is enough of a risk being taken by the consumer that they shouldn't have to saddle(puns everywhere) the startup costs. Why do I have to pay a registration fee for an EV when I'm already paying an unnaturally elevated(in comparison with performance related ICE equivalents) price to cover development costs?

Having said all that I do take the point that I don't have to buy a Zero, nobody is twisting my arm!

Given the energy and environmental challenges we all face and governments never shut up about isn't it rediculous and infuriating that we are having this discussion? These efficient and energy saving products should be at such a discount that friends and colleagues should be racing to the dealership, not ridiculing and pointing out the opportunity cost,  which is large.

[cirrus pete]

Great thread.

Since ordering a 2013 S I've had nothing but sneers or incredulity from friends and colleagues. This hasn't been a surprise. After posting on the Brammo forum and this about a few electric bike shortfalls or people's perception of ebike shortfalls I'm coming around to the view that as an early adopter you just have to pay for the privilege.

I'd like to see better deals from both the manufacturers and better consumer incentive from governments. Extended warranties or purchase plans, lease upgrade plans or buy back schemes don't seem like unreasonable expectations. I've read with interest about how profit margins are tight but I remain unconvinced. For a three year old(give or take) technology that is not free from problems I think there is enough of a risk being taken by the consumer that they shouldn't have to saddle(puns everywhere) the startup costs. Why do I have to pay a registration fee for an EV when I'm already paying an unnaturally elevated(in comparison with performance related ICE equivalents) price to cover development costs?

Having said all that I do take the point that I don't have to buy a Zero, nobody is twisting my arm!

Given the energy and environmental challenges we all face and governments never shut up about isn't it rediculous and infuriating that we are having this discussion? These efficient and energy saving products should be at such a discount that friends and colleagues should be racing to the dealership, not ridiculing and pointing out the opportunity cost,  which is large.

If you don't pick up that tab that means the investors need to. A buy back, lease program or anything else where the manufacturer is left holding the bag on the residual value of the bike means that to the extent they don't realize that value somewhere in the market (through used re-sale, parts stripping, etc) it is a real loss for them. At that point they may as well have sold the bike for less originally because if the consumer isn't paying for it the investors are. That in turn means that the investors would have to assume that by selling the bike for less (or buying it back/lease assumption) the ultimate profitability/cash flow generation would be greater sooner than if they laid off the risk on the consumer and profits grew more slowly but at lower risk. Compounding the problem is that every $ the PE investor spends today has to contribute to generating a massive return on capital given how risky the investment is. So they have to balance those extra outflows (lease/buyback) and the potential for a more rapid sales growth against a lower risk but longer horizon-ed approach.

[ZeroSinMA]

No question riding a motorcycle is more dangerous than driving a car, but a bike accident isn't on the top of the list of things most likely to kill me. The top 10 are:

1. Heart disease: 599,413
2. Cancer: 567,628
3. Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 137,353
4. Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,842
5. Accidents (unintentional injuries): 118,021
6. Alzheimer's disease: 79,003
7. Diabetes: 68,705
8. Influenza and Pneumonia: 53,692
9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 48,935
10. Intentional self-harm (suicide): 36,909

These are counts, not probabilities.  To turn them into probabilities you have to divide by the sample size.  I'm pretty sure that the divisor for "motorcycle deaths" is much smaller than the divisor for "general health issues". The only time it might make sense to divide the number of motorcycle deaths by the entire population is if you are providing data for a "generic unidentified person" and in that case you would be factoring in the "chance that this generic person rides a bike" for the overall probability.  But in your case we know the "chance that you ride a bike" is 100% so you don't get to hide behind that aggregate population number to estimate your specific personal risk...

So I'm as good as dead, just a matter of time, as my friends believe  

I think my odds are improved by eliminating those parts of the 100% sample that do not apply to me.

30% of fatalities are drunk riders. I don't ride after drinking, so you can take me out of that category.

Another 30% are young and prone to rash decisions that lead to accidents.

I'm not in that category either.

By the time you peel off the various high risk groups within the biker population, I'd guess my probability of death is only 10x higher than for the average car driver.

Seriously, the fact is that when you suit up to ride it is not the same as climbing into a car. You have to be up for it. You have to be aware. That's what I like about it.

[ZeroSinMA]

Great thread.

Since ordering a 2013 S I've had nothing but sneers or incredulity from friends and colleagues. This hasn't been a surprise. After posting on the Brammo forum and this about a few electric bike shortfalls or people's perception of ebike shortfalls I'm coming around to the view that as an early adopter you just have to pay for the privilege.

I'd like to see better deals from both the manufacturers and better consumer incentive from governments. Extended warranties or purchase plans, lease upgrade plans or buy back schemes don't seem like unreasonable expectations. I've read with interest about how profit margins are tight but I remain unconvinced. For a three year old(give or take) technology that is not free from problems I think there is enough of a risk being taken by the consumer that they shouldn't have to saddle(puns everywhere) the startup costs. Why do I have to pay a registration fee for an EV when I'm already paying an unnaturally elevated(in comparison with performance related ICE equivalents) price to cover development costs?

Having said all that I do take the point that I don't have to buy a Zero, nobody is twisting my arm!

Given the energy and environmental challenges we all face and governments never shut up about isn't it rediculous and infuriating that we are having this discussion? These efficient and energy saving products should be at such a discount that friends and colleagues should be racing to the dealership, not ridiculing and pointing out the opportunity cost,  which is large.

If you don't pick up that tab that means the investors need to. A buy back, lease program or anything else where the manufacturer is left holding the bag on the residual value of the bike means that to the extent they don't realize that value somewhere in the market (through used re-sale, parts stripping, etc) it is a real loss for them. At that point they may as well have sold the bike for less originally because if the consumer isn't paying for it the investors are. That in turn means that the investors would have to assume that by selling the bike for less (or buying it back/lease assumption) the ultimate profitability/cash flow generation would be greater sooner than if they laid off the risk on the consumer and profits grew more slowly but at lower risk. Compounding the problem is that every $ the PE investor spends today has to contribute to generating a massive return on capital given how risky the investment is. So they have to balance those extra outflows (lease/buyback) and the potential for a more rapid sales growth against a lower risk but longer horizon-ed approach.

Great analysis.

I wonder if your average "real motorcycle rider" could have worked that out. 

As I said, Zero can't expend capital trying to cover depreciation costs to the installed base caused by the rapid innovation (increased consumer value/dollar production ost) that is needed to capture the broad market that investors need the company to reach to produce a return on investment. They have to use every dollar to go after a broad market.

Wups. We just had a little earthquake.

[lolachampcar]

Last year I would not have considered an ebike.  Zero did the MY12s and generated sufficient utility to  move me to buy.  I'll upgrade to the MY13 and leave my MY12 to the secondary market; one more ebike on the road.

My point is that the process has begun.  There is enough utility for ebikes to be something more than a novelty.  When the utility increases to the point where the cost can be justified by a larger audience then competition will start to drive costs down.  Volume will drive it down further.  Again, the process has begun.

Tesla crawled with the Roadster.  They will toddle with the Model S.  With luck, they will survive to walk with a Leaf priced truly useful small car.  The process has begun.

I'm happy the process has begun and I have opened my wallet to do my small part.  

[dahlheim]

Last year I would not have considered an ebike.  Zero did the MY12s and generated sufficient utility to  move me to buy.  I'll upgrade to the MY13 and leave my MY12 to the secondary market; one more ebike on the road.

My point is that the process has begun.  There is enough utility for ebikes to be something more than a novelty.  When the utility increases to the point where the cost can be justified by a larger audience then competition will start to drive costs down.  Volume will drive it down further.  Again, the process has begun.

Tesla crawled with the Roadster.  They will toddle with the Model S.  With luck, they will survive to walk with a Leaf priced truly useful small car.  The process has begun.

I'm happy the process has begun and I have opened my wallet to do my small part.  

this.  but i'll wait a year or two (i think.  maybe.) to upgrade.  my 2012 is also just great, surpassing my expectations.

thanks to zero, the e-bikes are definitely coming.

[ColoPaul]

So I'm as good as dead, just a matter of time, as my friends believe  

By the time you peel off the various high risk groups within the biker population, I'd guess my probability of death is only 10x higher than for the average car driver.

Anyone enjoy the Onion?
http://www.theonion.com/articles/breaking-friend-who-just-got-motorcycle-already-de,29685/

BRIDGEPORT, CT—Moments after purchasing a new Kawasaki Ninja 250R, your friend Pete has already been killed, bystanders outside the motorcycle dealership have just confirmed. "Boy, that didn't last long," said bike salesman Chris Varrick, adding that “no more than 10 seconds” after becoming a bike owner, Pete lost control of his motorcycle, collided with an 18-wheeler, was flung approximately 30 yards, and died upon impact with the pavement. "He handed over the check, thanked me, and took off down Jackson Road. And then he died." At press time, Pete's younger brother, who inherited the bike, has also already died.

[ZeroSinMA]

So I'm as good as dead, just a matter of time, as my friends believe  

By the time you peel off the various high risk groups within the biker population, I'd guess my probability of death is only 10x higher than for the average car driver.

Anyone enjoy the Onion?
http://www.theonion.com/articles/breaking-friend-who-just-got-motorcycle-already-de,29685/

BRIDGEPORT, CT—Moments after purchasing a new Kawasaki Ninja 250R, your friend Pete has already been killed, bystanders outside the motorcycle dealership have just confirmed. "Boy, that didn't last long," said bike salesman Chris Varrick, adding that “no more than 10 seconds” after becoming a bike owner, Pete lost control of his motorcycle, collided with an 18-wheeler, was flung approximately 30 yards, and died upon impact with the pavement. "He handed over the check, thanked me, and took off down Jackson Road. And then he died." At press time, Pete's younger brother, who inherited the bike, has also already died.

Actually I died two months ago but like Dr. Malcolm Crowe (Bruce Willis, Sixth Sense) I haven't admitted it yet and keep posting to this forum from the afterlife.

[kcoplan]

http://www.lohud.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2013308250026

http://www.theonion.com/articles/breaking-friend-who-just-got-motorcycle-already-de,29685/

Be safe out there!

(Still waiting for my ride back)

--Karl

[nicktulloh]

Last year I would not have considered an ebike.  Zero did the MY12s and generated sufficient utility to  move me to buy.  I'll upgrade to the MY13 and leave my MY12 to the secondary market; one more ebike on the road.

My point is that the process has begun.  There is enough utility for ebikes to be something more than a novelty.  When the utility increases to the point where the cost can be justified by a larger audience then competition will start to drive costs down.  Volume will drive it down further.  Again, the process has begun.

Tesla crawled with the Roadster.  They will toddle with the Model S.  With luck, they will survive to walk with a Leaf priced truly useful small car.  The process has begun.

I'm happy the process has begun and I have opened my wallet to do my small part. 

Despite Lola being wrong about the brakes he's right about this.

I've been following Zero for a few years and decided that with the '12s they'd achieved enough utility to buy a DS. Now, my engineer daughter is infatuated with it and is buying it from me so/as I buy a '13 S.

I can't imagine a more soul-destroying job than marketing. Oh wait - marketing electric vehicles. Guys are out there developing eye-opening packages to convert old VWs to electric and nobody in this country gives a rat. It's got to parallel why motorcycle racing and soccer can't stimulate any interest here. Tesla seems to be on a roll and may be the exception to the rule. Between the ersatz weekend Harley Easy Rider crowd (no disrespect to one of the best movies ever) and the 'performance' guys that think removing baffles makes them faster (it doesn't, in fact usually just the opposite), there's precious few motorcycle consumers whose opinion I value more than a mouse fart. I'll continue to do my own thing on my Zero, my Tiger, the trials bikes and the vintage stuff and if anyone is interested, I'll talk their ears off. But try to convince the average consumer, even average motorcycle consumer of the benefits of going electric? I'd rather eat worms.