ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
General Category => Industry - Electric Powered Two Wheelers => Topic started by: BrianTRice@gmail.com on April 29, 2020, 06:33:46 AM
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This was livestreamed this afternoon. I noticed about 15 minutes in and watched it fully:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsTnU2-Lkt0
The audience questions were all typical (and good, just easy for me to predict having been in this space for a few years), and I think his answers were mostly helpful.
- He did dance around battery research, aside from sensibly downplaying supercapacitors and graphite engineering changes, since they aren't production ready. I wonder what he was avoiding saying, although he did admit they're lagging a bit in their regular density updates.
- He highlighted the change in Zero marketing from being a purely budgetary/rational decision to an emotion-first message, which sounds pretty sensible to me (use the budgetary analysis to justify buying the bike you like, rather than expecting you to like a bike with a specific spreadsheet outcome).
- He definitely stuck with a line I've heard before and used, which is that to get the bike price down, the battery price and scale are the key factors; he later discussed how production scaling in the last year has been a nice problem to have, but sort of hinted that it's scary not being able to get the bikes out fast enough once the market comes to your door (so to speak).
I'm an adventure-ish rider but I don't find the Black Forest as compelling as some, apparently. I want to solve range/aerodynamics before trying to get out there fully.
Anyway, that's what I got out of an hour's discussion.
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I was there the whole time. I think he answered the battery question in the best way he could, which means we aren't getting anything better anytime soon. If the current Zero lineup meets your range demand, then great. If it doesn't, next year ain't gonna be much better.
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Just curious: was the competition from HD and Energica discussed?
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Nope, he never mentioned them by name. But he did say he was happy about more players coming into the space.
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"The cost of building our motorcycles is roughly 50% on the battery"
This doesn't add up.. it doesn't explain the £5000 difference between an SR/F and an SR, for example, with the same batteries in them.
Cas :)
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"The cost of building our motorcycles is roughly 50% on the battery"
This doesn't add up.. it doesn't explain the £5000 difference between an SR/F and an SR, for example, with the same batteries in them.
Maybe the SR/F and SR/S are the exceptions. If the cost of the SR/F's other components are more than 50%, that means the cost of the batteries are going down, right?! ;D ;D
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I think he answered the battery question in the best way he could, which means we aren't getting anything better anytime soon. If the current Zero lineup meets your range demand, then great. If it doesn't, next year ain't gonna be much better.
He mentioned that historically battery improvements came every few years but & admitted that they were behind on this but didn’t offer an explanation.
He did state that there were only 2 or 3 improvements left with the current battery technology so maybe they are pacing them self’s.
DC charging was talked about so look for that sometime in the future.
The LiveWire was mentioned (specifically cost).
He stated that Zero's head-start in the software aspect of EV motorcycles will be a great advantage when mainstream companies get into the game.
I’m not convinced of that tho.
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He mentioned that historically battery improvements came every few years but & admitted that they were behind on this but didn’t offer an explanation.
He did state that there were only 2 or 3 improvements left with the current battery technology so maybe they are pacing them self’s.
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He stated that Zero's head-start in the software aspect of EV motorcycles will be a great advantage when mainstream companies get into the game.
I’m not convinced of that tho.
Agreed. I think we may have another 10-20% left in improvements before we hit a ceiling. If other companies that use lithium batteries could make them last longer, they would.
I don't think he wanted to admit it, but I'm sure Honda and Yamaha have the resources to tackle any software programming. 'Yamaha especially, since they've been in the electronics world for decades. Even Harley Davidson came out with a motorcycle and they have little experience in that field.
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Harley has been on the forefront of motorcycle electronics for safety equipment... Even if it's been optional, they've been putting it in bikes for more than a decade.
Software leads can vanish so quickly.
-Crissa
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"The cost of building our motorcycles is roughly 50% on the battery"
This doesn't add up.. it doesn't explain the £5000 difference between an SR/F and an SR, for example, with the same batteries in them.
Its apparent for the lower-end models like the FX+FXS and S+DS. The increment cost of battery is built into the ordering system. You can also see it in the cost of the Power Tank.
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Well nice enough interview. In baseball terms I feel the SRF was a solid triple and the SRS gets a home run for giving so many people what they wanted with some fairings. But adding a 20kWh battery and/or level 3 charging to go with the 6kW AC charging would have been the grand slam and sold sooo many bikes.
I feel the extra money for the SRS is clearly due to the added R&D of the fairings and molds needed for a new model bike.
At this point I hope they can fill the high performance dirt bike niche left by Alta and finally offer a FXR and scoop up some more of that dirt bike market.
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I think Zero is working on those grand slams. I dunno when they'll see the light of day, but everyone I've spoken to is aware and seems like they'd like to show something they have in the works.
I think where Zero people tend to show a lack of awareness is in some of the finer details that competitors are attending to (Energica's park assistance which is a good feature) or the aftermarket (many hadn't known about the Madstad windscreen when I visited last with one on my DSR).
An FXR is not a bad idea, but I think it'll be a "DSR/T" or something. I think the vision is a steel tube frame around an adventure geometry.
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Isn't the reason there's no FXR the lower capacity battery, same reason the D/SR is only available in 14.4?
I think a DS(R) with the FX suspension and wheels would be a good fit and require very little work on Zero's part.
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Isn't the reason there's no FXR the lower capacity battery, same reason the D/SR is only available in 14.4?
I think a DS(R) with the FX suspension and wheels would be a good fit and require very little work on Zero's part.
A higher capacity battery is a benefit in getting more current out of it, certainly.
The FX has about 1.5-2in more suspension travel and a 21" front wheel vs 19" front wheel on the DSR. (Rear wheel at 18" vs 17" for the DSR seems less critical but of note.) The FX front brake disc is smaller, though.
A DSR with FX suspension would be a little more daunting for most riders, height-wise. Someone might buy it, but it's hard to say how many.
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Of course, it would only be for the more off road oriented riders. The FX already has a 1.5" higher seat so an upgraded DS wouldn't be too out there, still lower than quite a few enduro and trail bikes (although a 14.4 would be heavier than most, a 7.2 would be similar). They've probably got some room to lower the seat a little too, I know there's an aftermarket one that can drop it by about an inch.
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Baldy gave a good interview. Sam Paschel seems like a really good choice for CEO. He thinks logically, is smart, well-spoken and clearly an all-around nice guy. My only concern is that he seems to exhibit slightly low expectations for scalability and profitability while Zero relies heavily on one main investor.
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The alternative would be to OVEREXTEND himself as the Hanlons did with Excelsior. I like his slow, steady strategy.