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Author Topic: EV startups not a good investment  (Read 1019 times)

Richard230

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EV startups not a good investment
« on: December 20, 2023, 01:33:37 AM »

An article in my newspaper today, written by Jack Ewing and published by the NY Times discusses an EV truck company that apparently was mostly a scam. Here are some excerpts from the article.

"The founder of the electric truck company Nikola was sentenced to four years in prison Monday in a fraud case that highlights the financial carnage left behind by a crop of electric vehicle startups and their promoters."

Milton was accused of pumping up the value of Nikola stock by making extravagant claims about the company."  "Milton told investors that Nikola had working prototypes of emission-free long haul trucks, had billions of dollars' worth of binding orders and was producing low cost hydrogen fuel. All of those statements were false, said prosecutors, who had asked Ramos (the judge in the trial) to hand down an 11-year prison term and a $5 million fine. Lawyers for Milton, who denied the charges, had sought probation."

Perhaps more interesting the the last paragraph of the article:

"Investors have grown skeptical even of companies that have managed to produce thousands of cars. Shares of Fisker, which delivered about 3,000 vehicles through the beginning of November, have fallen 95% from a high set in 2021. Shares of Lucid, which has said it will produce at least 8,000 luxury electric sedans this year, are down 93%. Shares of Rivian, a maker of electric pickups and SUVs that many analysts consider the startup most likely to survive , are down 80%."

After reading this long article I thought to myself that Zero deserves credit for hanging in there for at least 15 years without too much drama - except during the early years when the founder got the heave-ho.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2023, 01:46:21 AM by Richard230 »
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Richard's motorcycle collection:  2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2009 BMW F650GS, 2020 KTM 390 Duke, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 (FZS1000N) and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

Fran K

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2023, 01:50:30 AM »

I saw one of those Rivian pick up as the claim goes to what they are.  It had California plate or plates on it.  Beautiful did not even have a trailer hitch.

Like pick up you can't go to the gravel yard get a scoop and go over the scale before and after.  What is an investment?  One that will pay dividends and split and go up and split or something to buy low and sell high?

I forgot about that company the guy got prision for.  Did Ford or some other player get into them?  If I recall they had a booth at a show and hid an electric cable powering the thing from the building's wiring.
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CagivaRider

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2023, 02:33:49 AM »

There are quite a few Rivians near me. I've also seen a couple of Lucids. The reality is most pickups around here are just used to take the kids to school and squash a few motorcyclists.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2023, 10:29:21 AM by CagivaRider »
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Motoproponent

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2023, 05:24:31 AM »

Under Trevor Milton , Nikola kind of wrote the book on how to scam your way into being a venture capital mill. Although now that the curtain has been pulled back on the Class-8 Battery EV shenanigans, they are somehow still legit making hydrogen powered trucks. Here in Oakland there is a big super-mega KW electric truck charging station (using the infrastructure of an old shipping terminal's gantry cranes and shore power capabilities) and a hydrogen filling station going in to support zero-emissions trucks. At least one vendor has an order of Nikola and Hyundai hydrogen trucks. There are already BYD EV trucks all over the place around here. I see the Hyundai hydrogen trucks all the time. Tesla, Volvo, and Freightliner not-so-much.

I'm skeptical though. I get a lot of fool me once, fool me twice vibes from Nikola. They manage to stay in the press and show up on "Top Ten" lists from youtubers and online media but no one is driving them on the road.

**cough**Damon*cough*cough
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Specter

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2023, 09:48:55 PM »

Rivian's specs are not all that great when you really look at them, and then compare to how they perform in the real world.
Also on that, the author's comment about them being the only one who might survive, is probably accurate.  Have to remember that Amazon pumped a few billion I think it was, into them, to get them going, and has an order for a bunch of electric delivery vehicles.  If they put that much into it, I can't see them just letting that slide down the drain.

The whole hydrogen thing, I don't think is going to do too well yet, we just are not ready for it, and it takes electricity to make the hydrogen, so why not just use the electric vehicle to begin with?  Maybe design the  long distance trucks with swappable battery packs like a fork truck has.  When it's time to fill up, it pulls in, unplug a few andersons, lift old battery, drop new one bolt down, reconnect and go.

With the entire auto industry eyeballing the whole Lease / Monthly fee business model thing, that'd kind of fit right in with that as well.

Aaron
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MyFirstElectric

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2023, 03:24:44 AM »

An article in my newspaper today, written by Jack Ewing and published by the NY Times discusses an EV truck company that apparently was mostly a scam.

Sounds scary. I had read negatives as well. Does this only relate to EV trucks, right?
EV cars, EV motorbikes, EV scooters, EV push scooters, EV bicycles, and EV wheelchairs, all are profitable businesses, no?
I read that in China they have sold more EVs than in all other nations combined? Sth like that. Tesla sold some in China also.
Some Asian countries go full throttle on e-scooters. Instead of cars, you know.
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Specter

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2023, 08:41:15 AM »

Ive also seen videos that show hundreds of acres of these EV cars sitting there, in China, rotting away in parking lots, unused,  the sales were just for show, kind of like a govt propaganda thing.  Look how many of these we sell each year!!! we are better than you neener neener.

Scooters, you really can't count too much, because those you can plug into your wall w/o any modifications and charge them on standard current, and they don't take a lot either, the infra structure is pretty much there to charge and handle them.   The trucks and cars now that need beefier power put to them are going to be the big issues EVERYWHERE.

Picture your quaint little subdivision that was built in the 70's.  It was so carefully designed and signed off on, by EVERYONE, including the power company who said, ok you are going to need 10 megawatts to power all those houses and their stuff, so they tap a 20k line to send that much down your quaint little block after it runs thru all your cute little pole transformers to finally drop it to a level that you can use.  Now all of the sudden, ooh wow they are going to peak at 40 meg now instead of 10.  Hmm.  What to do?

Up the voltage, can't then we'd have to change out all the transformers, AND the insulators on the poles to handle the higher voltage, MAJOR undertaking.

Add more transformers on the existing, well yah but the feed lines are 100 amps max, we can't run 200 amps thru it,stuff melts. need to run all new lines, which means additional insulators, oh and it all has to be up to CURRENT codes, not the code back in the 1970's.  So since you are doing that much, why not at that point just redo the entire thing?  Ok, tell them they will be without electricity for a few weeks to a month while we redo their hood.

Well tell them they can only charge from 12 pm to 5 pm because that's when the usage is the lowest.. well that's dandy for the Jerry Springer crowd.. the rest who actually  have to work for a living, are working, and not at their chargers.  so that won't work.

Oh and your electrical load on a cold night is 3050 Megawatts, you can do that WITH every generator you own, running at peak, with ZERO derating, and every transformer behaving, with zero derating, no ringing, no overloads.   But oh boy now we need an extra 500 megawatts to charge all the cars too.  We don't have it, we are super peaked right now and there is ZERO extra power floating around because everyone else around us, is cold too, and peaking all their stuff as well, trying to keep their lights on too. Well turn off the chargers then, we don't have the power for them.  Or start rolling blackouts.

The first time someone gets stranded because they were not able to charge, they re going to trade their e vehicle back in for an ice vehicle, because, well, it's reliable, and you can carry a can of gas along with you, you can't carry a can of electricity with you.

Ironically, the more the E vehicles come mainstream, the worse their problems are going to grow, until EVERYTHING is adapted out for them.  Telling everyone you WILL be in an E vehicle by xx date is not going to work when the support for them is simply not there.

Solar and batteries on your house may help a LOT, in some instances but that is going to cost as much as your car did.  how many people can REALLY afford that?  and everything else.

Scams or not, you are going to be seeing a lot of boondoggles coming up in the next few years, as these problems pop up and they can't hide / ignore them anymore.

Aaron
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Richard230

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #7 on: December 26, 2023, 08:41:57 PM »

A CBS news report this morning said that it is getting tough to sell used electric cars. Their prices are dropping much faster than ICE cars because the market for people who want one is becoming saturated, financial incentives are fading away, and people who still do want an EV are waiting for improved battery tech in the future that will provide faster charging and longer ranges.

In other electrical power news, an article in my newspaper yesterday says that it is becoming tough for utility companies to get new electrical transformers as the supply from China (who knew that they are also manufacturing our large transformers) has dwindled due to the usual reasons resulting in the shipments of new transformers backlogged by months, thereby delaying the completion of new residential and commercial properties.

If it is not one thing, it is another.  ::)
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Richard's motorcycle collection:  2018 16.6 kWh Zero S, 2009 BMW F650GS, 2020 KTM 390 Duke, 2002 Yamaha FZ1 (FZS1000N) and a 1978 Honda Kick 'N Go Senior.

Motoproponent

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #8 on: December 26, 2023, 09:26:01 PM »

I got an article in my news feed this morning, although it was really a native advert, but regardless....Lincoln Electric, yes the made in the USA welder people, are making DC EV Chargers now.

I mean they have been making very similar things for more than a century, it makes sense to me. I mean a welder takes AC current and tutns it into a specific type of DC, that's all a DCFC is anyway...right?
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Specter

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2023, 09:27:17 AM »

that's a very logical step for lincoln welder to take actually.  A brilliant one tbh.
Yes welders basically just rectified AC into DC,  some of the fancy ones chopped it at hi freq but otherwise it's fairly simple.  Back in the days you could 'tune' the scr's for some ham radio transmitting gear but anyways.

THe only difference is going to be, welders typically put out low voltage and hi amps,  the chargers will be putting out hi volts and hi amps but they should still excel at it.

Being Lincoln though it's going to be a bit pricey but with that should be as tough as a tank.


aaron
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heroto

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2024, 05:55:52 AM »

Another story that matches the OP:
I got in on the ground floor with an e-truck start up out of Clemson University (legit university in the US). They were working on very high voltage architecture for really fast recharging, seemed like a good idea. After a couple of years they got a nice infusion of VC money then went public. The stock initially soared, but we little guys were not allowed to sell at first. The VC guys made a ton of money. After that, the stock lost 99+% of its value pretty quick. We little guys got played.
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Specter

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2024, 05:43:46 PM »

That's about par, and it happens again and again and again.  Penny stocks are notorious for crap like that too, yet people keep getting suckered into that kind of scheme.  I'll give you stock but you are not allowed to sell it,  then it's useless, how about giving me something I can use instead?

Aaron
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SwampNut

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2024, 11:34:34 PM »

Using "load of gravel" as the benchmark of a truck is one of the dumbest things I've read in a while.  Many of us "only" use a truck to haul motorcycles and bikes, plywood and other lumber, camping gear, and similar completely unworthy endeavors.  I'd never haul gravel, they deliver that if you need it, and put it where you want.
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Specter

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2024, 12:07:37 AM »

IKR,  I mean why not just put 2 tons of weight in the truck, why gravel to fuck up your bed and corrode the crap out of everything if it's lime based?

Also, even an ICE vehicle, towing generally cuts the mileage down to about half, yet when the same phenomenon happens on an electric they want to act like oh wow, look at that, they suck.

Aaron
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SwampNut

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Re: EV startups not a good investment
« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2024, 12:15:22 AM »

I'm borrowing a truck to move a couch tomorrow.  No gravel.

It is definitely weird how people don't consider range of ICE.  Maybe because some trucks have crazy unloaded range.  I'm borrowing a Ram 2500 diesel, and it does over 500 miles empty on one tank.  So losing half means 250, more than my bladder.  Losing half of 300 is much worse.  But I had an ICE truck with terrible MPG and even worse when towing, and it was a big deal.
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