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How long before Zero gets gobbled up?

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MostlyBonkers:
It seems that the big motorcycle manufacturers are just waiting for the variables to improve a bit more before entering the market.  When they decide to take the plunge, will one of them buy Zero? Or will they just release far superior products and let Zero wither and die?

I'm betting on 2020 being a big year for changes in the electric motorcycle industry. I don't know if Zero is a privately owned company still, but if it is then providing they can build their reputation within the next few years (and dealer support), then they may just stand a chance of hitting the big time without being taken over.

Any thoughts?

GBEV:
Not sure but wouldn't any take over bid raise Zero's investability status and any existing equity value and , at least in part, provide more access to debt funding or raising private equity and/or venture capitital to help them go it alone?

Existing investors (think I read venture capitalists are in) would have to decide are we in it long term? Or is this outside buy out deal just too good for that?

If it is the former, they think that isn't enough of a bid.
If it is the latter, they think they have been paid more than the going price.

The biggest danger I see from our P.O.V. is the buyout is just the means to stop competition before mass market sales kick in and whilst the buy out is consequently still cheap and that could be Mr Honda or H.D. who may or may not be able and willing to provide a better product for the price.

teddillard:
This is part of a discussion I've been having for a while now, but my focus has been more about "how long before the big manufacturers get into the market" rather than a buyout of Zero.  For my money, what with Polaris' moves, I'm predicting 2016.  The timing of my book was due, in a big part, to that belief.  That said, I'm thinking one major mfr, not a bunch of them. 

Harley?   Fuggetaboutit.  ;)

Really, though, the thing anyone has to understand about the big boys is that they're looking for astronomical sales numbers, by electric motorcycle standards.  Energica's Livia Cevolini has told me she's looking for 500 units sold for their first model year.  I'm not entirely sure, but I'm under the impression that Honda is looking for a couple of more zeros on that number before they consider it. 

Speaking of Honda, every time Mugen races we get back into that discussion.  Honda clearly is toying with R&D, and Zero is doing them a huge bit of free market research, but buying them out?  They don't need to, I doubt they want to, and consolidating the market at this stage isn't going to do anyone any favors in terms of selling 50,000 units a year. 

I also think it's important to understand that Polaris bought out Brammo at fire-sale prices, basically due to very low delivery of sales predictions.  In a lot of ways, it can be seen as cutting their losses rather than trying to enter the market in any real way. 

I think I need more coffee - did that make sense?  :D

GBEV:
As far as I can acertain by an internet search, no EV manufacturer has ever been gobbled up unless it is been preceded by lots of smoke attached to a slow burning fire sale.

So history suggests for Zero to be "gobbled up" at any time it will need to be deemed a binary dead cert success or failure by the buyer.

In the former case that possibility could be to protect loss of future sales from a legacy ICE manufacturer who thinks it might lose sales to Zeros' offerings, dunno who though. There is no guarantee that building electric bikes would be their motivation ;).

However the timing of either of those outcomes will undoubtedly be very different IMO.

Richard230:
I think government emission regulations (rather than the marketplace) will ultimately result in more electric motorcycle sales and perhaps the requirement that large motorcycle manufacturers will be required to market EV's if they still want to sell gas-powered vehicles. (Kind of what is going on in CA right now.) If that happens and the requirements stick, I think you will see more market activity and interest in electric motorcycles.  I agree with Ted that Honda and Yamaha (and probably Kawasaki) would want to design electric vehicles in-house.  BMW is no doubt already designing their own electric motorcycle line, KTM won't be far behind and who knows what Ducati and Triumph are thinking about right now.

If anyone was going to buy out Zero so that they could jump into the marketplace without doing it the hard way, I would put my money on Suzuki or Triumph. H-D might be forced into the market (kicking and screaming) and they could also be a suitor for Zero if they thought the LiveWire (or its production prototype) was just going to be too much trouble to manufacture.

All this changes, of course, if there is a shooting war in the Middle East that stops the flow and transportation of oil from that location. If that should happen and oil prices go through the roof, or oil becomes scarce, then EV sales would skyrocket, the industry would finally get rich and mature - and battery prices would finally go down due to their mass production (assuming enough raw materials to make them can be discovered).

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