ElectricMotorcycleForum.com
Makes And Models => Zero Motorcycles Forum | 2013+ => Topic started by: dkw12002 on April 26, 2014, 09:13:43 AM
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https://www.yahoo.com/tech/yamahas-exquisite-electric-motorcycles-may-soon-hit-83831502448.html (https://www.yahoo.com/tech/yamahas-exquisite-electric-motorcycles-may-soon-hit-83831502448.html)
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https://www.yahoo.com/tech/yamahas-exquisite-electric-motorcycles-may-soon-hit-83831502448.html (https://www.yahoo.com/tech/yamahas-exquisite-electric-motorcycles-may-soon-hit-83831502448.html)
Well, Yamaha already has an electric motorcycle on the market and for only $170: http://www.walmart.com/ip/Yamaha-Motorcycle-12-Volt-Battery-Powered-Ride-On/21616167 (http://www.walmart.com/ip/Yamaha-Motorcycle-12-Volt-Battery-Powered-Ride-On/21616167)
Seriously, tho, if Yamaha gets serious about getting into this market they could give Zero a run for the money:
1) Yamaha has its own LiIon battery expertise and manufacturing capacity. This can translate into more range at lower cost than Zero can offer via OEM of 3rd party batteries.
2) Deep bench of motorcycle design and engineering knowledge going back to 1955.
3) Deep bench of electric drive train engineering and commercialization knowledge: http://www.gizmag.com/yamaha-motive-city-car-to-use-zytek-electric-drive-train/30948/ (http://www.gizmag.com/yamaha-motive-city-car-to-use-zytek-electric-drive-train/30948/)
4) Can design and manufacture all subsystems (e.g., lights, displays, etc.) further reducing COGs.
5) Rigorous design and test procedures deliver product more slowly (4 - 5 years in development) but will deliver a bullet-proof product that will not suffer glitches and recalls.
6) Can sell at a loss for several years to gain market share.
Yamaha's design expertise shows in the concept bikes. Right out of the gate they are better looking than any Zero product. The fact that they are aiming for a 200lb bike shows that they understand the #1 rule of the EV game (that Brammo does not): to maximize range, minimize weight.
Zero investors had to expect that a horizontally integrated Japanese consumer products company like Yamaha that makes motorcycles may follow Zero's lead if Zero proved that there's a market for electric motorcycles.
My prediction is that in a few years one of Yamaha's competitors in the motorcycle market buys Zero to defend against competition from Yamaha if the electrics start to make a serious dent on the ICE motorcycle business.
My PES1 specs prediction for the 2016 shipping product:
Weight: 220lbs
Battery: 12kWh
Range: 150 miles
0 - 60: 4 - 5 sec.
Price: $9,995
Between now and then Zero will have to hustle to drive down costs to meet Yamaha in the market.
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Those are some interesting comments ZeroSinMA, and ones that I agree with. But I am not sure that even Yamaha will be able to meet your projected price of $10K for their bikes if they come with a 12 kWh battery. If they did though and the bikes still have look a like the concept models, they would be off to a good start in the market.
By the way, did you check out those videos of the BMW factory assembling the C Evolution scooter? Now that is a real modern factory operation and shows what a major manufacturer can do once they decide to mass produce a new vehicle.
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220 lbs 12 kWh .. I don't think so. Zero uses very dense pouch cells, and their 12 kWh pack w/ enclosure, BMS, wiring, other electronics weighs around 250 pounds alone.
City range is ALMOST irrelevant, except possibly for urban delivery riders. City efficiency matters a little more from an aesthetic point of view. The Zero S ZF14.2 is rated at 170 miles in city riding .. that's about 5.5 hours of riding @ 30 mph average.
High speed riding is where range matters: ~120 miles @ 40 mph = 3 hours, ~80 miles at 80 mph = 1 hour. This can be reasonably depleted in a single ride. Higher speed range is dominated by aerodynamic drag losses.
Weight does have a small impact. Including a 180 pound rider incl gear, a 220 pound bike weighs ~35% less than a 450 pound bike. This is will reduce power requirements by maybe 10-15% at 40 mph, 5-10% at 80 mph .. again not insignificant, but you're not going to double your range by magically halving your weight.
I'm betting on Yamaha going for the low end. 220 pounds, 62 mph top speed, 4 kWh, 0-60 comparable to 250cc, < $5k. Not suitable for highway use - either with top speed or range. This is very similar in specs to the 2012 Zero XU (http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/zero-xu/2012/specs.php), which sold poorly. Can Yamaha do better?
"no such thing as a bad product, only a bad price"
* 50% more capacity = 63 miles @ city speeds, ~30 miles @ 55 mph. Suitable for light use.
* quicker - figure 8s 0-60
* $5k instead of $8k .. huge difference
* existing distribution and service network
* Yamaha brand name
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Of course Zero has known from the git-go that once the e-bike market grew big enough they would be up against the big motorcycle manufactures. I'm sure that has been considered in their business plan from the beginning.
Trikester
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In the video, it shows someone going to 100 km as if it were programmed to go that fast only. It also looks a bit smaller than a standard size bike. I think it will be an urban commuter only with a shorter range, something like 50 miles (20 miles at full speed). I was thinking a little less $...maybe $8000, and a smaller battery since it is going to be so light. If I'm right, it may just make owners hungry for a real electric motorcycle and that means Zero (or Brammo).
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I think the big holdup from the traditional manufacturers is the lack of a single-standard widely-deployed fast charge network.
In 2014 there is no realistic way to tour on something resembling a conventional bike. Yes, it is possible with a 900 pound slipstreamed bike with 200 pounds of chargers onboard.
You see this even with EV-friendly commenters (http://www.asphaltandrubber.com/news/yamaha-ped1-pes1-electric-street-dirt-bikes-2016/#comment-398114).
I posted:
The Mission R is an example of the type of bike that can tour with reasonable speeds. Mission claims 140 miles of real-world range for their top-spec bike, likely in mostly highway operation; this is 2-3 hours of riding with a 30 minute charge. I assume the 30 minute charge is to 80%. More realistically you will stop every 20 minutes for a 50% charge.
An example 200 mile trip:
- start at full w/ 140 miles of range
- ride for 1.5 hours = 100 miles, discharge down to 29%
- stop for 20 minutes, charge back to 82% (+75 miles of range)
- ride for 1.5 hours = 100 miles, discharge down to 10% (14 miles remaining)
- charge at destination @ 6 kW AC = 3 hours
Total ride time: 3 hours. Total mid-trip charge time: 20 minutes. Pretty reasonable.
Every 100 miles added to the trip will add a 30 minute break, or one 20 minute break every hour of riding. If you ride at lower speeds – say 50 mph average instead of 70 mph – then you can probably reduce the total length of the charging breaks by 20%.
200 mile trip: 20 minutes total, 1 break
300 mile trip: 40-50 minutes total, 2 breaks
400 mile trip: 70-80 minutes total, 3-4 breaks
500 mile trip: 100-120 minutes total, 4-5 breaks
So a 500 mile trip – roughly 7-10 hours of riding – will need about 2 hours of breaks to recharge during the trip. I think that’s reasonable for non-ironbutt riding.
A $35k motorcycle is the first can approximate the ease of touring that ICE bikes enjoy today. But that'll come down in time.
However, do a few high performance electric motorcycles push the human race forward? No. Yet, when these bikes are considered as one part of our 4-year plan, they do. Mission’s mission is to enter at the highest end of the market—where customers are prepared to pay a premium—and then to drive the costs down as quickly as possible. We will leverage higher unit volumes to offer lower prices with each successive model. This is our plan, and we’ll accomplish it while continuing to boost the performance and technological capabilities of our products. Our meticulously architected plan has us entering the market in just 4 years, with a motorcycle that will outperform our best-in-class Mission RS, at a price well below half of today's price. And this will enable our master plan: replacing the internal combustion engine, across the entire planet.
So for 2018 .. sport bike performance rivaling anything on the planet .. similar touring capabilities as today's ICE bikes .. priced competitively against similar ICE sport bikes .. and hopefully launched into an environment with a well-established single-standard DC charging network.
I believe we'll see full-sized electric competition from the established ICE bike manufacturers at that time. And not before.
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So for 2018 .. sport bike performance rivaling anything on the planet .. similar touring capabilities as today's ICE bikes .. priced competitively against similar ICE sport bikes .. and hopefully launched into an environment with a well-established single-standard DC charging network.
I believe we'll see full-sized electric competition from the established ICE bike manufacturers at that time. And not before.
We already have a sport bike rivaling anything on the planet. The lightning bike holds the ground speed record as fastest production motorcycle and it is electric :)
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Those are some interesting comments ZeroSinMA, and ones that I agree with. But I am not sure that even Yamaha will be able to meet your projected price of $10K for their bikes if they come with a 12 kWh battery. If they did though and the bikes still have look a like the concept models, they would be off to a good start in the market.
By the way, did you check out those videos of the BMW factory assembling the C Evolution scooter? Now that is a real modern factory operation and shows what a major manufacturer can do once they decide to mass produce a new vehicle.
Good points, so add advantages #7, #8, and #9: brand name recognition, economies of scale, economies of conversion or application of existing manufacturing plant.
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Of course Zero has known from the git-go that once the e-bike market grew big enough they would be up against the big motorcycle manufactures. I'm sure that has been considered in their business plan from the beginning.
Trikester
Exactly. From a strategic investment standpoint Zero isn't trying to to beat BMW rather they want to be that company that BMW buys to compete with Yamaha.
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In the video, it shows someone going to 100 km as if it were programmed to go that fast only. It also looks a bit smaller than a standard size bike. I think it will be an urban commuter only with a shorter range, something like 50 miles (20 miles at full speed). I was thinking a little less $...maybe $8000, and a smaller battery since it is going to be so light. If I'm right, it may just make owners hungry for a real electric motorcycle and that means Zero (or Brammo).
It's possible that Yamaha builds a low cost, short range commuter bike... a bike between a sport ICE and a scooter... but the price has to be in the ICE scooter range and that's tough with LiIon. Just ask Elon Musk. He figured out that 200 miles is the minimum range for even the Country Club adoption. He's promised a cheaper version than the S but it's BS. Good luck trying to build a whole car for the cost of goods for a LiIon battery to move tons of battery and metal 200 miles. For a commuter EV bike the minimum is 100 miles and the COGS on that pack is still in the $3000 to $4000 range for a rider on a diet riding a 220lbs bike.
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220 lbs 12 kWh .. I don't think so. Zero uses very dense pouch cells, and their 12 kWh pack w/ enclosure, BMS, wiring, other electronics weighs around 250 pounds alone.
City range is ALMOST irrelevant, except possibly for urban delivery riders. City efficiency matters a little more from an aesthetic point of view. The Zero S ZF14.2 is rated at 170 miles in city riding .. that's about 5.5 hours of riding @ 30 mph average.
High speed riding is where range matters: ~120 miles @ 40 mph = 3 hours, ~80 miles at 80 mph = 1 hour. This can be reasonably depleted in a single ride. Higher speed range is dominated by aerodynamic drag losses.
Weight does have a small impact. Including a 180 pound rider incl gear, a 220 pound bike weighs ~35% less than a 450 pound bike. This is will reduce power requirements by maybe 10-15% at 40 mph, 5-10% at 80 mph .. again not insignificant, but you're not going to double your range by magically halving your weight.
I'm betting on Yamaha going for the low end. 220 pounds, 62 mph top speed, 4 kWh, 0-60 comparable to 250cc, < $5k. Not suitable for highway use - either with top speed or range. This is very similar in specs to the 2012 Zero XU (http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/zero-xu/2012/specs.php), which sold poorly. Can Yamaha do better?
"no such thing as a bad product, only a bad price"
* 50% more capacity = 63 miles @ city speeds, ~30 miles @ 55 mph. Suitable for light use.
* quicker - figure 8s 0-60
* $5k instead of $8k .. huge difference
* existing distribution and service network
* Yamaha brand name
I think there's a magic number below which there's no interest for an EV regardless of price.
For an auto it's 200 miles. The consumer asks, "How often do I ever drive more than 200 miles?"
For a motorcycle the number is 100 miles. The consumer asks, "How often do I ever ride more than 100 miles?"
That's merely to attract ambitious and adventuresome consumers who make up 1% of the pool.
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I think the big holdup from the traditional manufacturers is the lack of a single-standard widely-deployed fast charge network.
In 2014 there is no realistic way to tour on something resembling a conventional bike. Yes, it is possible with a 900 pound slipstreamed bike with 200 pounds of chargers onboard.
You see this even with EV-friendly commenters (http://www.asphaltandrubber.com/news/yamaha-ped1-pes1-electric-street-dirt-bikes-2016/#comment-398114).
I posted:
The Mission R is an example of the type of bike that can tour with reasonable speeds. Mission claims 140 miles of real-world range for their top-spec bike, likely in mostly highway operation; this is 2-3 hours of riding with a 30 minute charge. I assume the 30 minute charge is to 80%. More realistically you will stop every 20 minutes for a 50% charge.
An example 200 mile trip:
- start at full w/ 140 miles of range
- ride for 1.5 hours = 100 miles, discharge down to 29%
- stop for 20 minutes, charge back to 82% (+75 miles of range)
- ride for 1.5 hours = 100 miles, discharge down to 10% (14 miles remaining)
- charge at destination @ 6 kW AC = 3 hours
Total ride time: 3 hours. Total mid-trip charge time: 20 minutes. Pretty reasonable.
Every 100 miles added to the trip will add a 30 minute break, or one 20 minute break every hour of riding. If you ride at lower speeds – say 50 mph average instead of 70 mph – then you can probably reduce the total length of the charging breaks by 20%.
200 mile trip: 20 minutes total, 1 break
300 mile trip: 40-50 minutes total, 2 breaks
400 mile trip: 70-80 minutes total, 3-4 breaks
500 mile trip: 100-120 minutes total, 4-5 breaks
So a 500 mile trip – roughly 7-10 hours of riding – will need about 2 hours of breaks to recharge during the trip. I think that’s reasonable for non-ironbutt riding.
A $35k motorcycle is the first can approximate the ease of touring that ICE bikes enjoy today. But that'll come down in time.
However, do a few high performance electric motorcycles push the human race forward? No. Yet, when these bikes are considered as one part of our 4-year plan, they do. Mission’s mission is to enter at the highest end of the market—where customers are prepared to pay a premium—and then to drive the costs down as quickly as possible. We will leverage higher unit volumes to offer lower prices with each successive model. This is our plan, and we’ll accomplish it while continuing to boost the performance and technological capabilities of our products. Our meticulously architected plan has us entering the market in just 4 years, with a motorcycle that will outperform our best-in-class Mission RS, at a price well below half of today's price. And this will enable our master plan: replacing the internal combustion engine, across the entire planet.
So for 2018 .. sport bike performance rivaling anything on the planet .. similar touring capabilities as today's ICE bikes .. priced competitively against similar ICE sport bikes .. and hopefully launched into an environment with a well-established single-standard DC charging network.
I believe we'll see full-sized electric competition from the established ICE bike manufacturers at that time. And not before.
Unless the fast charging tech for batteries AND fast charging stations deployment accelerate this isn't going to happen. The reality is that a tank of gasoline has 10x the energy density of the best batteries today and 5x better than theoretical (there's no Moore's Law for batteries as for microprocessors as ions unlike electrons take up space).
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I think there's a magic number below which there's no interest for an EV regardless of price.
For an auto it's 200 miles. The consumer asks, "How often do I ever drive more than 200 miles?"
For a motorcycle the number is 100 miles. The consumer asks, "How often do I ever ride more than 100 miles?"
That's merely to attract ambitious and adventuresome consumers who make up 1% of the pool.
And yet, a $30k 70 mile Nissan LEAF outsells the $70k 220 mile Tesla Model S.
I get what you're saying - I think there will be a major inflection point in adoption rates with a double-capacity Nissan LEAF or a Tesla Model E - but price and charging speed matter too.
Tesla has talked about offering a larger Model S. Suppose they had a hypothetical Model S110 without Supercharging access.. only 20 kW AC charging. At equal cost, do you think buyers would prefer the S110 without SC or the S85 with SC access? Supposing the SC was rolled out to the point Tesla is talking about for 2015?
The Zero S ZF14.2 is the first production bike to offer 100+ miles of range at 55 mph. Lito Sora, Mission R are entering production this year as well, though at vastly higher price points. Do you think we'll see a huge upswing in adoption rates with these higher capacity bikes, regardless of price? ($17.5k for the S ZF14.2 up to $50k for the Sora)
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When the price for any motorcycle, other than maybe BMW's and Ducati's go over $20K USD, I don't think any manufacturer is going to see a lot of sales. The question is what number of bikes do they want to sell to make their investment viable? From my past experience Yamaha is looking for at least 3000 sales a year in the U.S. and if they don't get it they will withdraw that model from the market. I have no clue what sort of sales figures Brammo or Zero need to make money and to stay in business in the long run. I still believe that both firms are hoping for a big manufacturer (like Polaris or Honda) to buy them out so as to acquire the technology without having to sink years and tons of money to develop an electric motorcycle, or other sports vehicle, which needs to be more compact than what is available for electric cars (or buses).
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So for 2018 .. sport bike performance rivaling anything on the planet .. similar touring capabilities as today's ICE bikes .. priced competitively against similar ICE sport bikes .. and hopefully launched into an environment with a well-established single-standard DC charging network.
I believe we'll see full-sized electric competition from the established ICE bike manufacturers at that time. And not before.
We already have a sport bike rivaling anything on the planet. The lightning bike holds the ground speed record as fastest production motorcycle and it is electric :)
The Lightning superbike is very fast, no mistake. It's proven that at Pikes Peak and Bonneville, although usually any claims of "fastest" require some qualifiers.
However, of the electric superbikes that rival the best ICE sportbikes: either they're unavailable to purchase (Brammo Empulse RR, MotoCzysz, Mugen Shinden), noises have been made about production intent but none have been sold (Lightning SB, Munch TTE02), or they're planned for near release but priced far above comparable ICE bikes (Mission R, maybe CRP Energica).
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Last fall Lightning told me that they had sold one "production" street model (a low-power version about equivalent to a Brammo Enertia Plus, although looking like a conventional motorcycle). At that time they were in discussions with a fellow from Europe about buying eight of the racers for track use, but I don't know if that deal ever went through.
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I have been told by more than one person at Zero that they have no intention of bringing prices down significantly. They intend to innovate and produce a premium product because they know they can't compete with the big players in terms of volume and price. More like Ducati than Honda.
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I have been told by more than one person at Zero that they have no intention of bringing prices down significantly. They intend to innovate and produce a premium product because they know they can't compete with the big players in terms of volume and price. More like Ducati than Honda.
I am not surprised. That is the only way you can make money in a low-volume market. And unless gasoline supplies disappear as they did during the "gas crisis" of the 1970's, I see the electric motorcycle market in the U.S. being a small one for quite some time that will not attract much attention from the major manufacturers - unless they need to play around with "carbon credits" to support their IC vehicle sales.
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More like Ducati than Honda?
I owned a 900GTS (a non-desmo bevel Duke) for several years. Great engineering ideas and wonderful handling let down by poor quality control in manufacture. That's a fair description of our Zero.
Peter
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I have a nice 1967 Ducati Sebring 350 original paint. Good design, good quality back in those days.
Check it out.
Trikester
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Very nice Trikester. I always liked those 1960's Ducati 250 and 350 singles, but at the time I was riding and buying Japanese, mostly because their prices were less, dealers were more numerous, their reliability seemed better and they were easier for me to maintain.
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Nice old Duc, hope it doesn't disassemble itself as quickly as my '70 Daytona!
No particular opinion to share here but a couple facts. Firstly, the Model S, Leaf, and Volt sold in nearly the same numbers in 2013. That's the first full year for the S, not sure if Leaf and Volt will continue to ramp like the S has. Now what the logic is to the formation of the various niches of cars (luxury vs. GT vs. sportscar vs. cheap sportscar vs. economy sedan, etc.) I couldn't say but there is an established luxury/GT sector that the S was designed to slot right into. The X of course will aim for the luxury "crossover"/SUV crowd. The Leaf and Volt are competing in a much more price-sensitive space, and one could ask whether they make sense if you aren't the early-adopter sort.
Secondly, the Panigale is $30k and it seems clear the Mission R is aimed directly at that market down to identical suspension components. BMW HP2 is similar. So I wouldn't say it's "priced far above comparable ICE bikes," though certainly Ducati and BMW are not making their core profits off these flagships. Zero has put themselves in a weird place of high-ish end sportbike price, but without competitive suspension and other quibbles that don't quite make them on par with the competition. Not sure how that's going to work out for them. I don't think Tesla would have much impact on the future of EV's if not for the 3rd gen ~$35k car with 100k's production volume. If no motorcycle maker forces the issue like Tesla has (and Zero and the others won't unless they push to mass volume) then I think it's right to say we wouldn't see anything but compliance bikes anytime soon. However I think the tech will improve fast enough that someone will have to make the jump before too many more years. If it's a major manufacturer then noone will have the jump on the competition that Tesla does, but it'll happen. It may be the cages that push the advancements that make e-bikes flourish.
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I was thinking that ICE bikes are very difficult for a small company due to the engine being such a costly thing to develop. Plus, if the engine doesn't pan out for performance and reliability then that company would have some problems to compete. However, with electric it seems the batteries competing companies use might be the same, and electric motors are more simple. So maybe a smaller company can compete better in the e-bike market as compared to gas market. Of course smaller company doesn't have the ability to buy in mass quantity to drive cost down, but they might be able to compete well on the bike itself. Smaller company might be competitive with more features, like Zero did with allowing rider to program regen and things like that.
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I think the two biggest problems for anyone wanting to manufacturer electric motorcycles is acquiring the money to start a manufacturing plant and keep it running for years before it can start generating a profit and the difficulty of developing a worldwide dealer, distribution, parts supply and service network. Not easy things to do, for sure.