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[valnar]

I don't think R&D costs will go down because that staff (however many people they are) are always working on the next thing.   It's not like they lay them off, or have them sit on their hands.  Moore's Law doesn't really apply to motorcycles.  Whatever small amount of computer chips they buy stay the same price, but perhaps become more powerful on the newer models.  A monochrome LCD screen on a 2015 FX is probably the same price as on a 2020, if not more.  Tooling..perhaps that is true.  Unless they're adding the tooling costs of the "next-big-thing" to the costs of the current motorcycles, which they have to do anyway to stay in business.

I think what more likely happened is they went in the hole a bit to design the first iteration of motorcycles, and only now might be making a little more money, so there is no incentive to drop prices.

[TheRan]

Not only that they also don't make the controller themselves (one of the most expensive electrical components for which Moore's Law could apply), so while Sevcon may be making a bit more profit than they used to Zero could be paying the same. Pretty sure the dash is made by a third party too as I've seen a very similar one (just lacking the Zero logo I think) on some other electric bike.

[Crissa]

And unless you can move to the new tooling... The old parts generally don't really go down in price if there's still demand.  They're just outmoded by the new parts.

So sure, LCDs have gone down in price - so much so the SR/F has a color screen - but that just gives them new abilities, not really a lower price point.  Their old LCD screen would be cheaper to make now... But it's a special product, so it's mostly stuck at its original price.

The more general a part can be, like a relay or a screen or a processor - the more the price can go down.  The less general a part is - like a relay for compatibility or custom LCD - the more 'stuck' at a price point it is.

-Crissa

[princec]

Zero might wisely move their manufacturing to Thailand, like Triumph have done, in order to keep a firm lid on costs.

Cas

[Richard230]

Zero might wisely move their manufacturing to Thailand, like Triumph have done, in order to keep a firm lid on costs.

Cas

I don't think that would make sense for Zero as their yearly production is too low to make the cost of setting up a new manufacturing plant in Asia economical.  They would likely have to increase sales by as much as 10 times to make that pencil out. 

[princec]

That would be the idea Bit of a chicken and egg... can't do volumes while charging niche enthusiast prices, can't do sensible prices unless doing volume...

Cas

[BrianTRice@gmail.com]

Manufacturing doesn't work like anyone here is expressing. Manufacturing is very difficult and costly, and quality plays into after-sales support and servicing so there's a balance they have to predict on quality investment that can't be measured until 2+ years later.

Each manufacturer has to reach volume in order to reduce their manufacturing overhead. There's no way around it, and no way that one manufacturer's scale and price reduction will somehow enable the lower volume manufacturer to reduce their price without reducing their margin or risking bankruptcy eventually.

Not a single electric motorcycle product / manufacturer is profitable right now.

[T.S. Zarathustra]

I don't think R&D costs will go down because that staff (however many people they are) are always working on the next thing. It's not like they lay them off, or have them sit on their hands.

Not only that they also don't make the controller themselves (one of the most expensive electrical components for which Moore's Law could apply), so while Sevcon may be making a bit more profit than they used to Zero could be paying the same. Pretty sure the dash is made by a third party too as I've seen a very similar one (just lacking the Zero logo I think) on some other electric bike.

And unless you can move to the new tooling... The old parts generally don't really go down in price if there's still demand.

I didn't say that R&D costs had gone down. The costs of R&D and tooling for the SR "should be recouped" by now. They need to purchase new toolings for other lines, but the customers who buy the SR line "should not" have to pay for the toolings for other lines.
It is exactly at third party suppliers where Zero can profit from Moore's law. Current BMS probably has half the components it did when the SR was introduced and that itself is savings, not counting the price drop of components.

Manufacturing doesn't work like anyone here is expressing. Manufacturing is very difficult and costly, and quality plays into after-sales support and servicing so there's a balance they have to predict on quality investment that can't be measured until 2+ years later.

Exactly. Cost of the manufacturing is much more than the sum of the parts in the bike. Which is why recouped costs of R&D and tooling should give the manufacturer opportunity to reduce prices.

The thing is that while the bikes are selling in good volumes, and there is no real competition, then there is no pressure to lower the prices.

[BrianTRice@gmail.com]

Zero's R&D costs have not been "recouped"; they've been mitigated by Zero conservatively keeping the platform stable.

Zero takes in occasional investment rounds with their private investment group in order to keep funding R&D. They are in fact incredibly lean for an EV startup. Every figure I've seen cited for competitors is way higher. The bikes are priced a little aggressively but probably right at the comfort zone for their scale to ensure they don't bleed money. I don't think Zero could cut prices to where everyone wants them to be without bleeding money and risking imminent demise.

The understanding is that Zero would have to sell between 5k and 10k bikes per year to start lowering costs and hitting the higher volume that would recoup the investments fully. They're still somewhere in the 2k bikes per year range; maybe 2.5k but the current conditions I'm sure have clamped sales for every manufacturer so who knows.

[Crissa]

I wish more people knew about these bikes.

They're so much easier to learn to ride on than anything else, with much easier maintenance...

-Crissa

[princec]

But they cost as much as a reasonable car :|

Cas

[Auriga]

Comparing to a car almost isn't fair.  They have massive quantities of scale.
But comparing them to plug in battery cars, they're cheaper.

[Crilly]

A top end Chevy Bolt is $30,000.00 right now.  Why they are so cheep scares me.

[Crissa]

The top end Bolt starts at $42K.  Where are you finding it for $30K?

Admittedly, all car dealers (except Tesla) are hurting right now.  No sales.

-Crissa

[MostlyBonkers]

Bonkers where ya been? 

I agree the costs haven't dropped like we had hoped but I think the old predictions of cheaper batteries didn't take increased demand into the equation.
Now it seems battery "cells" have dropped in price quite a bit but the labor cost to build them up into usable batteries has gone up.  I feel that's been Zero's number one issue for a while, high labor costs for every position.  (Richard I wrote this before I saw your post but glad to see we agree)  Remember even at the current prices I don't think Zero has ever made a profit.

I think it was very unfortunate that the SRF and SRS weren't able to come out with 20kWh batteries and be a smashing success, though they are very nice bikes in their own right.  Perhaps soon, but who knows.

I still love my Zeros and hope to keep them going for years to come but without a (very) large increase in range from some bike company I doubt I'd get another.

I can't reply to all the great comments here right now, but as to where I've been:

Suffering from depression, quite frankly.  I'm over it now, but unfortunately it took about 18 months this time round.  I even stopped riding for about six months of it. Such a shame really because riding my Zero is one of the greatest pleasures I get from life. At least I'm back in the saddle now.

The Facebook post got a lot of comments, but I prefer the format of this forum.  The quality of the posts here are often of a higher quality too. Not always, I hasten to add, it's just a general observation. 

The question in my original post has certainly been answered thoroughly.  As I've mentioned on Facebook, I feel much happier with Zero's pricing now.  It is very easy to criticise when ignorant of some of the finer details! [emoji4]