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[Grauteufel]

Sales figures seem to back up my thoughts that the small bike market is where manufacturers will be successful, with bigger electric bikes just 58 sales out of the 120,000 odd total. Ouch.

https://www.visordown.com/features/general/opinion-are-electric-motorbikes-trouble%C2%A0

[Specter]

That's kind of a mindset thing too.
Small bikes are cheap, affordable, and tons of chineesium garbage available for sale anywhere from costco to name brand shops.

These have a huge appeal to kids, and folks just getting started out, needing cheap transport and can't afford a real 'vehicle' to put it.

The mindset over there tends to be more dainty as well.  You like smaller compact things.  Americans love their pickup trucks and bigger vehicles to get around, so those little bikes, while they may have their appeal as well to our young libbies being brainwashed in our so called institutions of marxist education. the rest of society will tend to clamor for something more like a real bike.  Like an energica, or Zero for example.

TBH I have not really seen any Energica marketing here in the US yet they ARE for sale here, so I am sure that is not helping them at all sell the bikes here!

While smaller bikes will do very well over the pond, in the USA, I can see the bigger ones having much more appeal, so can't say that the big ones are in real trouble, it's just a location thing for the time being.

The economy is in the crapper too thanks to the commies trying to ruin the country so that absolutely is hurting the market big time as well.  When people can't afford even basic food to feed the family, they sure as hell can't afford a 'toy'.  Give it a few years and I bet they pick up a lot.

Another problem, albeit temporary I see is, smaller toys and scooters, you can wheelie up your stairs and plug into the wall socket to recharge, they are very convenient in that aspect.  Bigger bikes, not so much.  Smaller bikes are generally a putter around town thing, bigger bikes, bigger trips.  With the charging networks and their issues, THAT also is a huge determent to getting any E vehicle since there is not a lot of places to charge on the road yet and the ones that are, are riddled with problems and issues.  Range anxiety is a thing, and the further a vehicle claims to be able to go, the worse that anxiety will be.

In the US, Tesla opening up his network to non T users I think will be a major step in the right direction for sales, but time will tell.


Aaron

[TheRan]

That's not a surprise at all when you look at the difference in pricing. Even the non-R Zeros fall into that 125 equivalent or smaller category so the cheapest "big" electric bike is probably going to be one of their R models, so you're looking at like £16k and up. The "smaller" Zeros are also some of the most expensive 125 equivalents but even those were about £12k, but all the rest like the Super Socos, Nuis, Surrons, Maevings, etc. are like £6k and below. For a commuter for getting around the towns and cities they're very adequate and that's not a ridiculous price to pay. Then you also have the licencing structure over here, anyone who has a car licence from before about 2001 can just hop on one of those 125 equivalents and everyone else just needs to do a 8 hour course for about £160, for a bigger bike they're looking at a 3-5 day course costing £700-1000 and it's more demanding of riding skill.

[Richard230]

Price certainly has a big impact of ebike sales. In the U.S. decent electric bicycles can be bought from Amazon and other sources for anywhere between $500 and $3000. In the San Francisco Bay Area, cities are going nuts over the proliferation of cheap electric bicycles being ridden by children as young as 6 years old and up. By the time they get to be teenagers, they are zipping around town at 35 mph, riding through stop signs and traffic lights and doing the usual things that kids do. You have to admit that riding an electric bicycle sure beats pedaling one.

Various governments are proposing that the bikes be licensed is some way and young people also be licensed to ride them. Good luck with that. As usual the horse has already left the barn and there are hundreds of ebikes running around here and who is going to enforce the law? Certainly not the parents who are buying these bikes and not the cops, either. They already can't keep up with local crime and vehicle traffic violations. There is no way they would be willing to chase after kids speeding on streets, bike paths, dirt trails, parks and school properties.

BTW, I bought an electric bicycle earlier this year that can travel 100 miles on electric power only and up to 200 miles with pedal assist. The price of the bike was only $1500, with free shipping and I was not charged state or local sales taxes  . Needless to say it was made in China, but then at that price who cares? BTW, the capacity of the 48V battery is almost 3Kwh, but the bike is sure heavy at 130 pounds. So the pedals are pretty much there for looks. It is really convenient for getting around town and being able to park just about anywhere in a crowded car park or at the beach where vehicles parked there are charged a fee. Top speed is 28 mph, but you can buy other ebikes that are faster, they just won't go as far.

[TheRan]

Well things like that are already illegal to be ridden on the roads in the UK (along with the rest of Europe) and certainly aren't counted as actual motorcycles or included in the numbers in the Visordown article.

[Richard230]

San Francisco is worried about people charging all types lithium batteries indoors and is establishing rules to deal with this perceived fire hazard. But how they are going to enforce the rules are beyond me. 

[Specter]

So, I can charge a cheap ass chineesium vape pen that can blow up just as easily and have several times already, but can't charge my bike?
What about just about every other product that is electric, that has some sort of lithium battery in it.
Whether it be a 4KW bike sitting in your garage, or a 10 watt electric razor or toothbrush that catches fire on your bathroom sink or towel drawer, once that battery catches fire, you are in trouble.

The police can very well enforce laws on bikes.  In the US, if you are on a bike after I think age 12, please don't quote me, you are supposed to ride on the street, NOT the sidewalks, AND obey traffic laws as much as possible, (meaning no they don't expect a sophomore on a 10 speed to do 35 mph, but he better stop at stop signs, obey traffic lights, ride in the proper lane, the right of way etc etc).

Sadly this presents issues for people in cars, another major hazard on the roads, and of course kids being kids, and not obeying the laws, possibly running over people, running into traffic and learning first hand, the law of gross tonnage.

One thing I CAN possibly see them doing is some sort of helmet or eyeglass law.  EZ Go's over 20 mph have to have seat belts, because of the speed / potential for injury etc, so I can see them lumping bikes in to the class of 'motorized vehicles' claiming it's for safety reasons, but I can see them doing it for the tax reasons too. Let's register them, so the DMV can collect more tax dollars.  Next is licensing etc etc.

When I was a younger shit, I could easily do 30 mph or more on my 10 speed just pedaling, and in fact DID get a speeding ticket or two on a bicycle in my days   Bragging rights that was !!   As a young muscular teen, It never really did dawn on me, what happens when you run into something at 30+ MPH Aaron?  What happens when you hit a rock at 30  MPH or a huge pothole and come off that 10 speed and face meets pavement Aaron???  Now that those speeds can be reached w/o having to actually put some work into it?  yah, this could become an issue.

Aaron

[princec]

Fundamentally the price of Zeros, Livewires, and Energicas, is all almost exactly twice what they are actually worth when compared to just about anything else you get for the same money over here.

You can look at the limited range as being traded off against the nutso acceleration, and you can look at the relatively heavy weight as being traded off against the convenience of not wanking around with clutches and gears, and you can look at the lengthy charging and trade it off with the fact that for the vast majority of the time you're charging it at home round the back and it's always full.

But you can't ignore that you can buy better bikes, that are just better as motorbikes, for half the price. This is reflected in the savage depreciation. And in fact you can very nearly buy an electric car for the same money now. Seriously... the prices are a joke. I only bought one because I was (at the time) unnecessarily rich, bored, and curious, knowing full well it was going to cost me a pointless fortune, and behold, it has.

I've recently just run the figures through my spreadsheet of the costs of things, and the SR/F, should I manage to keep it another 2 years and 10,000 miles on top of the 3 years and 15,000 I've already done, will have cost me a grand total of £20,700 to own and run, or about 82.8p per mile. That is, franky, fucking terrible value for money. Running the figures on my Ioniq 5 (which will do double the mileage), I get 80.6p per mile. Yes, actually cheaper.

So the message for manufacturers is ... get those prices down by 50%, or you'll just lose. (Halving the cost of the SRF gives me a figure of 54.8p/mile).

FWIW when I sell the Zero, it's pretty unlikely I'll be getting another one. It simply costs too much.

Cas

[TheRan]

I think when I got my DS 4 or so years ago a new one was about £12k, I saved about 4 grand going ex demo. Now a new FXE is the same price with slower charging, no storage, and no opportunity for faster charging with a charge tank. I can't believe that after 5/6 years of selling pretty much the exact same bike (it's just different bodywork and a pointless TFT dash over an FXS) it's not possible for them to bring the price down under £10k at least. Instead they're just bringing out new more expensive models and discontinuing the cheaper S and DS.

[Richard230]

As my 2018 Zero depreciates in value from its original $18K (to who knows what?) I notice that my third-party liability-only insurance premium keeps increasing every year. During the past 8 years the cost to insure the Zero has doubled to $150 a year, much more than my other motorcycles. Before I sold it earlier this year, my 2011 Royal Enfield was only costing me $28 a year to insure, while my much faster and sportier 2016 BMW R100RS's, before I sold it around the same time, was $120.

[princec]

My SRF insurance is like £380, with 10000 years no claims bonus, clean license, 50 year old living rurally... again, joke prices.

Cas

[Richard230]

I assume that insurance companies are all worried about EV battery fires when charging and if they get in an accident. EV's are apparently like rolling bombs as far as insurance companies are concerned. Remember, perception of danger is much more important than reality.

[Grauteufel]

....not wanking around with clutches and gears....

Love it, going to have to steal that line sometime

I've recently just run the figures through my spreadsheet of the costs of things, and the SR/F, should I manage to keep it another 2 years and 10,000 miles on top of the 3 years and 15,000 I've already done, will have cost me a grand total of £20,700 to own and run, or about 82.8p per mile. That is, franky, fucking terrible value for money. Running the figures on my Ioniq 5 (which will do double the mileage), I get 80.6p per mile. Yes, actually cheaper.

This is so true. For example, the SS9 fully kitted is about $52k here, im told there is $25k worth of batteries there, which may be true. Compared to other italian bikes of 80ishkw they are not specced as if they are a $27k bike, the most comparable is the Ducati monster, which is less than $20k (including an engine).

Then again, a large bike NEVER makes sense financially, a small car will always be cheaper.

[flynnstig82r]

Agreed on pricing, even on the used market. When I finally gave up and realized that I couldn't make my SS9 13.4 practical for regional trips, I paid $5k for a 2007 FJR1300AE that's basically the gas version of the SS9 with a highway range of 250 miles and I still don't have to mess around with a clutch. The insurance is half, the registration is much cheaper, maintenance is similar, and my monthly spending on fuel is still low overall. As much as I would like to go back to an e-moto someday, there's no electric at any price that doesn't represent a significant downgrade in at least one important area. I expect things to be different over the coming decade, but right now even the Experia would need a little more highway range for me to consider giving up the FJR, and that's a money-no-object comparison between a $5k and $25k bike.

[SwampNut]

I assume that insurance companies are all worried about EV battery fires when charging and if they get in an accident. EV's are apparently like rolling bombs as far as insurance companies are concerned. Remember, perception of danger is much more important than reality.

Insurance companies don't work on perception, they work on hard numbers.  EVs catch fire at a vastly lower rate than ICE, but since they are self-oxidizing they can go longer and do more damage per fire.  Also EVs can catch fire while charging, which is often inside the house, and ICE fires are vastly more common while being driven, and not in your house.

NYC has seen a huge number of life-threatening apartment fires from ebike charging.  The numbers prove that the fear is real.